Housing rebounds - time to call off the recession? Guest: Warren Pies
Macro Mondays
00:00
The Ramifications for Fixed Income and Commodity Markets
I think that what we're learning is that the terminal rate has a little less to do with the housing market in these credit channels. And so this was part of how we at least explained the backdrop as we came through Q4 into Q1. In my view it was that the bond market basically front ran the deflation or disinflation trade. We went from almost a 7.5% mortgage at the market bottom in October to sub 6% just like 4 months later and that clearly stimulated demand even though the Fed was still hiking the short rate. So if the short rate is going up and your long borrowing costs are going down you have this perversely stimulative environment that the Fed is
Transcript
Play full episode
