3min chapter

This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler cover image

🇺🇦 Where Will the War Go Next?

This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

CHAPTER

Do You Think the Ukranians Can Drive the Russians Off Their Soil?

It doesn't sound as though the ukranians will be able to drive the russians off their soil. Do you think that's still a possibility? I will answer that. But just briefly, i think there is a problem in natue with different countries having different objectives. There hasn't been a frank conversation to say what we are actually trying to achieve. It's someways advantageous if we don't have to be too precise about that point.

00:00
Speaker 2
And the usa. Lot of money over the next few months. So with that in mind, you have to ask, what is the root out of this? Cause? It doesn't sound as though the ukranians will be able to drive the russians off their soil. Ordute, maybe i raise that in a two negative way. Do you think that's still a possibility? I
Speaker 1
will answer that. But just briefly, i think there is a problem in natue with different countries having different objectives. And there hasn't been a frank conversation to say, what are we actually trying to achieve? Yo, partly because i think we want to retain alliance, unity and sons, it's someways advantageous if we don't have to be too precise about that point. Anda,
Speaker 2
strategic ambiguity has its own value,
Speaker 1
has its own value. But i think that the cost of that is that we are not prepared to make some of the big calls that need to be made. One of them is, do we want to enable the ucranians to conduct a major counter attack? If we do, we need to provide training at scale, and we all need to provide a kinds of equipment at a relevant scale, which is going to be costly. If the eukranians do counter attack and seize a significant part of of the trrain that they've lost, then it's a huge blow for the russians. And if the russians look at the equation and just see themselves being bled out, driven back, then at some point the question in moscow is, how do i recover anything from this a right? If if pewton believes he can just dig in, then his judgment and calculus won't shift. The question is whether we can shift it er. And so you know that that's, again, not linea, right? The the position at the moment from pewton's point of view, i think clearly. I don't, i don't have insight into his mind, but i think is very much like you say. We are on a consistent track in which a things favour russia, and therefore it's worth grinding on. If the situation deteriorates too much on the battlefield, and i think we have the means to enable that, then that calculus looks quite different. If we are very clear with our publics, and we have consistent polling coming out across our public that say, not only do our publics feel that russia is responsible for the pain theyre feeling, but we are prepared to go through with this, then moscow's judgment about the long term trend might change. Yet that's where we really need to start thinking about how we build leverage and shift the calculus in moscow.

Get the Snipd
podcast app

Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
App store bannerPlay store banner

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode

Save any
moment

Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways

Save any
moment

Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways

Share
& Export

Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more

Share
& Export

Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode