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The Annualized Return of the S and P 500 at Periods of High Unemployment
When the unemployment rate is under five %, the annualized return of the s and p 500 is three point nine% per year. But when it's over 9%, that returns are 24 points 5%. So literally six times higher return from if you invest during periods of high unemployment than low unemployment. When there's something really, really bad going on, stock prices typically are down hugely from their high so the earnings yield is lower. And investors tend to pay higher and higher prices for stocks when they're in a good mood. That means that future returns are going to be lower.