We all face major decisions at key points in our lives. We also have big decisions to make as a society, even as a species. Steve and Johnson doesn't claim these decisions will be easy, but he says we do have powerful tools at our disposal. In his book, Far Sited, Johnson writes about the psychologist, Philip Tetlock's work on forecasting. Tetlock found that some people are much better than others at reading the signs about what's coming. Malcolm Gladwell isn't impressed.
We all face fork-in-the-road moments in our lives. In his 2005 bestseller “Blink,” Next Big Idea Club curator (and this episode’s guest interviewer) Malcolm Gladwell famously argued that snap judgments can be just as effective as meticulous planning. In this lively conversation, author Steven Johnson (“Farsighted”) disagrees, arguing that big, complex decisions require careful thought and scenario-building.