This chapter examines the intricate relationship between candidate selection, voter perception, and electoral outcomes. It draws parallels between high-stakes poker and political forecasting, highlighting the importance of risk assessment and the volatility inherent in both fields. Additionally, it reflects on personal journeys through politics and poker, showcasing how understanding variance can shape careers and decision-making.
What can we learn from the people who put everything on the line? Nate Silver talked to just about every type of gambler – poker players, venture capitalists, crypto traders – to find out.
Silver joins Ricky Mulvey for a conversation about expected value, Presidential polling, and risk. They also discuss:
- Why Adam Neumann keeps getting money.
- DraftKings’s surcharge for winning bets.
- Why bubbles are bigger in meme-ified worlds.
Companies mentioned: DKNG, MSFT
Host: Ricky Mulvey
Guest: Nate Silver
Producer: Mary Long
Engineer: Dez Jones, Chace Pryzlepa
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