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The Laws Of Quantitative Investing | Michael Robbins

Forward Guidance

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The Importance of a Bell Curve Distribution

If you're down 10%, you have to make 11% to get it back. But what if an 11% return is just as likely as a 10% drawdown? You can assume that the higher returns are more common than negative returns, but I don't know that that's a good long-term assumption. If you're near retirement, 10 years of sideways or negative movement could really hurt your quality of living.

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