The Importance of Thinking Probabilistically

I think base, Bayesianism is an important thing for people to be aware of, right? Base theorem is essentially that you have to consider the prior probability of something once you have new evidence. For instance, a classic example of mammograms: 90% of the time when cancer is present, and you get a positive test on a mammogram. That's actually the wrong conclusion to make because they're not considering the base rate of the likelihood that you love cancer before you get the mammogram. And I think it's super easy to jump to conclusions from studies if you aren't very into the scientific method.

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