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Defaulty Towers: How dangerous is the US Debt Ceiling?
Many Happy Returns
Introduction
If the $31 trillion debt ceiling were breached without the limit being raised, it's fair to say that all hell would break loose. If this thing were to happen, then effectively you've pulled a rug under the entire financial system globally. So I think you can't underestimate the size of this tail risk. It's one of those real black swans, isn't it? And yes, it seems to happen regularly and every time it's the same kind of behavior from political parties in the US.
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