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Reflections on Buffett’s Famous Essay, ”How Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor”
This Week in Intelligent Investing
Is There a Biggest Loss of Capital in ETFs?
I think you're hearing cries from all sorts of political angles about the failure of the private sector to fulfill needs and what the government should and shouldn't do. And I guess that's pretty interesting that that did seem to actually settle down back in the 70s in the 80s. But it would be again fasting to see him revise this essay for today, he was right there was a positive capital at the time and then it got fixed. So now we almost have this weird one house mirror problem where we have plenty of capital sloshing around out there to fund problems and in many cases too many or too much capital to fund things.
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And I think you're hearing cries from all sorts of political angles about the failure of the private sector to fulfill needs and what the government should and shouldn't do. And I guess that's pretty interesting that that did seem to actually settle down back in the 70s in the 80s. But I think what's really interesting is that he was right there was a positive capital at the time and then it got fixed and I think if we could all agree that there was an excess a capital that developed over the ensuing 30 and 40 years so now we almost have this weird one house mirror problem where we have plenty of capital sloshing around out there to fund problems and in many cases too many or too much capital to fund things, but we have the opposite problem where you know what's going to drive demand what's going to offset these demographic factors and that's a really naughty hard problem to solve and I certainly don't have any great answers but you know it would be again fasting to see him revise this essay for today. And so I think the other thing that I'm going to say to you is that this is that it would probably look similar to what what he was prognosticating here and that there's just so many factors that line up there's some huge factors that don't. And so I think that's a key here and that if you're expecting more than you know my own personal forecast would be if you're expecting more than a low single digit real return from equities over the next 10 years, you know, and maybe something in the middle of the world, you know, you know, you're looking at the world, you're looking at the world through different lens than I am just because of the fact
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