3min chapter

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Drones, AI, and the Changing Nature of Warfare

Horns of a Dilemma

CHAPTER

The Future of Military Technology and Warfare Strategies

This chapter discusses the transformative impact of drones and autonomous vehicles on modern warfare, with a focus on Taiwan's potential adoption of cost-effective defense systems. Additionally, it examines the implications of technological advancements on U.S. military capabilities and the influence of political shifts on military acquisition strategies.

00:00
Speaker 2
So for the last quick question, the key takeaway from the report for me was this idea that once again, drones are not the revolution, but they are a part of a complicated, integrated mix of tools, armaments, et cetera, that we field. You see this in Ukraine. What do you think that mix looks like in Taiwan? It's not going to be as artillery focused maybe for a variety of reasons that we just discussed, but close out with how we should conceptualize the mix over the next five to six years. Five
Speaker 1
to six years, you're looking at more, I think, incremental improvements to certain technologies. So uncrewed underwater vehicles, UUVs would have to be fully autonomous and getting the big ones that sort of resemble submarines, I think you're a little bit farther away. You're seeing shorter range systems that have more bounded types of autonomy. And I think that's more likely in the next five to six years. And I think this is where Taiwan could benefit. They could have drone boats the way that Ukraine does to go out as a part of their porcupine strategy. They could have UUVs, small ones that are almost like smart minds that move around. I think it's harder for the United States and in the Pacific because it's going to need capabilities that have more range and endurance, that can survive in rougher sea states. All of this drives up cost. When you're not looking at having to project forces far like Taiwan, you can make use of a lot of smaller systems that you can keep the cost down. The United States in the next five to six years is... So you're already seeing some prototypes have been deployed, like the Navy has some USVs that went out to Indo-Paycom. But I don't think they're, I mean, given the speed of our acquisition process, we're probably not going to have that much out there. But part of this depends on what happens with the next administration, whomever it might be. You know, do they continue things like Replicator and really amp it up and find ways to field new capabilities that we don't expect to keep for very long. They're like your phone, right? You're going to get a new one in a couple of years and manage to succeed in doing so. And then you might be able to see a difference, but in all likelihood, we'll have the force that we have today, basically, which is alarming.
Speaker 2
Excellent and optimistic place to end. Dr. Stacey Pettyjohn, thank you for joining me on Horns of a Dilemma. Thanks
Speaker 1
for having me.
Speaker 2
Thank you for listening to this episode of Horns of a Dilemma. Do not forget to read the Texas National Security Review,
Speaker 1
which you can find at tnsr.org.

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