Mantic Monday 7/11/22
Astral Codex Ten Podcast
00:00
The Democrat's Chances of a Senate Seat?
Scott writes, predicted shows democrats chances increasing by about five % in may when some one leaked the draft opinion. Then about 15 % in june when the decision was announced. So why the big up date when it happened? Metaculus is hard to read on this question. They really should make it easier to zoom in on their grafts, or at least give specific dates. But it looks like they show the same pattern. Maybe people were just dumb. More casting.
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