Edward Dowd, Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies, a global macro alternative investment firm, and author of "Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 232 to his macro thesis for 2025 and beyond. Dowd explains why he believes the US economy was propped up by unsustainable factors under the Biden administration, and how a recession under Trump would actually be proof of a necessary economic restructuring in favor of the middle class.
This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
PhinanceTechnologies: https://phinancetechnologies.com/
US Economy Outlook 2025:
https://phinancetechnologies.com/Product_USEconomyOutlook2025.htm
Twitter/X: https://x.com/DowdEdward
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:34 Analyzing the unprecedented factors propping up the economy under Biden
03:14 Framing a recession as proof Trump is restructuring the economy for the middle class
05:03 How illegal immigration juiced the economy and will now reverse
07:28 Potential clash of fiscal priorities in Trump administration
09:03 Housing market correction expected as Fed-induced liquidity unwinds
11:18 Investors have the inflation story wrong, bond yields headed lower
13:12 Passive investing dominance a risk as markets turn
15:08 Recessions create generational opportunities for wealth transfer
16:11 AI bubble looks like dot-com infrastructure build-out before revenues
18:21 DeepSeek upending AI cost model, long-term bullish but near-term volatility
20:33 Gold's historical relationship with Fed rate cuts and dollar
23:24 Immigration's role in boosting money velocity and skewing economic data
26:55 Getting out of fiscal dominance to boost private investment
29:54 Using dry powder and dollar cost averaging in market downturns
32:40 Why a bond market dislocation would be fast but not necessarily a crash
35:47 Dollar strength not at risk, Treasury demand in recession
38:43 Expecting Fed cuts at or before March meeting, following T-bill market
41:24 Banks' unrealized losses shifting from duration to credit risk, CRE troubles
43:50 Doge's promising early progress on spending cuts, debt reduction
45:31 Housing transaction volumes slumping, a leading indicator
46:04 BoJ's Hobson's choice a key risk to watch, potential currency crisis
49:05 Strong dollar a sign of global dollar liquidity issues
51:23 Optimistic on government spending revelations and a potential "golden age"
53:24 Key takeaways - don't fear recession, creates opportunities, report details
