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14min chapter
Are Americans Tuning Out The 2024 Election?
FiveThirtyEight Politics
Analyzing Voter Turnout in Polling Models
Exploring the complexity of modeling likely voter turnout in polling, the chapter dives into methods employed by pollsters to determine likely voters and the importance of obtaining a representative sample. Discussions extend to comparing anticipated turnout for the upcoming election with past elections, factors influencing turnout like voting procedures and third-party candidates, as well as the impact of voter engagement and public disinterest in politics on turnout. The transition from registered voter polls to likely voter polls, variation in approaches among pollsters post Labor Day, and instances of bad polling practices are also discussed.
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