Although back-to-school spending appears to be trending higher than in 2022, there are signs that U.S. consumers could feel pinched before the holiday season.

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Sarah Wolfe: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Sarah Wolfe from Morgan Stanley's U.S. Economics Team. 

Simeon Gutman: And I'm Simeon Gutman, an Equity Analyst covering the U.S. Hard Lines, Broad Lines and Food Retail Industries. 

Sarah Wolfe: And on this special episode of the podcast, we'll focus on back to school shopping trends and what they suggest for the U.S. consumer outlook for the rest of the year. It's Friday, September 1st at 10 a.m. in New York. 

Simeon Gutman: Sarah, back to school shopping is in full swing as we go into the Labor Day weekend and end of the summer. As an economist who focuses on the U.S. consumer. I know you track it closely. Why is back to school shopping such an important indicator in general, and what is it suggesting about the overall health of the U.S. consumer?

Sarah Wolfe: Back to school is a large shopping event across July and August each year, which is an event that is only as strong as the strength of the U.S. household. If households feel good about job prospects and inflation is not eating away at their buying power, you should see that reflected in back to school sales. If we go back to summer 2022, headline inflation was 8% going into back to school shopping, and there were lingering concerns about COVID disrupting school. In 2023, certain headwinds to the consumer are risks to spend, these include higher debt service costs, tighter lending standards and a student loan moratorium expiring in October, but a still strong labor market and abating inflationary pressures that have supported a recovery in real wages should outweigh the downside risk and lead to a moderate back to school spending year. So what does this all mean for what we're seeing in the data? Our early read on July back to school shopping and in-store sales is that they're going to be weaker than the historical average, however, August matters most. If we see August sales in line with the historical average, then back to school sales for 2023 on a year-over-year basis would be quite a bit stronger than 2022 still, but roughly in line with the historical run rate from 2011 to 2019. This jives with our early readings from our AlphaWise Consumer Poll survey that this year back to school shopping is looking stronger than last year, but it is not a blowout

. 

Simeon Gutman: And how about end of year holiday spending? Is back to school a predictor of holiday spending trends? 

Sarah Wolfe: Back to school shopping is indeed a predictor of holiday shopping trends. However, the early read through to holiday shopping points to a holiday season that's actually weaker than 2022, but in line with the historical run rate as well. Total retail sales on a non seasonally adjusted basis across November and December have been 8% year-over-year from 2011 to 2019 in 2021, the growth was 33% and 2022 was 12%. This was due to stronger than usual demand for goods as a result of COVID and stimulus. So while the consumer remains relatively healthy and is spending more on back to school shopping than last year, it'll be tough to beat 2022 holiday shopping growth. The preliminary forecast for holiday shopping is to see growth in line with the historical run rate, but weaker than next year. We still get a couple more retail sales reports that are going to help us fine tune our holiday shopping forecast. Simeon, turning it over to you, what specific trends are you observing during this back to school shopping season? 

Simeon Gutman: So far, it's mixed. On the surface, it looks like the consumer is healthy. If we look at durable goods spending the last couple of months, we have June and now July, low 2% range. That's decent. But under the surface, it's a bit of a different story. If you look at the Q2 comps across the coverage universe, they were roughly flat. That's not a great indicator of spending. And we see a shift towards consumables and supplies and must haves. Consumers are not prioritizing discretionary items. Big ticket items are under pressure. The companies that are growing and doing well, they look like they're taking market share, there's a shift towards value, so discount stores, dollar stores, off price stores, and it looks like it's a story of product categories, beauty and auto parts. What we've seen specifically for back to school, July was a strong month, but there was potentially some pull forward from earlier in the season. August seems to be good, but may have slowed a little and we'll see about September. But consumers are definitely shopping more on occasion and it's been a little bit choppy.

Sarah Wolfe: These are great insights, Simeon, on how consumer behavior is slowly evolving as the macro backdrop becomes a little bit tougher. You've also highlighted electronics as one particular area that appears most at risk. What exactly does that mean and what's driving it? 

Simeon Gutman: So we conducted an AlphaWise survey, that Morgan Stanley did about a month ago, that suggests electronics have the most risk. We had a net neutral spending intention from consumers year-over-year. In contrast to other categories, we asked about clothing and apparel had a 21% net positive spending intention while school supplies was also positive 12%. The largest public company in the electronics space, they posted a -6% same store sales number in their recent quarter on top of a pretty big negative number the prior year. So it underscores the survey. The only caveat, and maybe a silver lining is, there is chatter about units in electronics beginning to bottom, so there could be some silver lining.

Sarah Wolfe: Finally, Simeon, if we were to widen the lens a bit, how have back to school shopping trends evolved over the last 5 to 10 years? And what is your longer term outlook for what lies ahead in terms of potential future trends? 

Simeon Gutman: Drum roll, please. Not much. It doesn't seem that we've gotten a big shift in spending. So we looked back over the last ten years at the percentage of spend that consumers have made over the July, August and September timeframe, which captures the back to school season. As a percentage of retail sales, it's surprisingly consistent in the 24 to 25% range. In this kind of COVID post-COVID era, we've seen it tick up a bit, but this makes sense because the consumer has shifted spend from services to goods. So it's run rating around 25%, but as we've seen reversion in other categories, we think this will moderate as well. So our future prediction would be consistent with the prior trend line; it doesn't seem to be trading off sales with other periods, including the holiday. The one trend we have seen is e-commerce penetration is rising, in this timeframe for both non store retailers and for physical retailers who have seen a higher mix of online sales. But as far as the future goes, we don't expect a big change. 

Sarah Wolfe: Simeon, thanks for taking the time to talk. 

Simeon Gutman: Great speaking with you, Sarah. 

Sarah Wolfe: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.