Inflation Outlook: 3% New Normal

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen."

In this episode, Chris Whalen breaks down why Kevin Hassett may have blown his chances for Fed Chair by walking back Trump's views, discusses Kevin Warsh as the emerging frontrunner, and explains his reform proposal to return to a decentralized Fed with 15 district banks focused solely on sound money. He reveals why Trump's rhetoric about interest rates is backfiring (pushing the 10-year UP instead of down), predicts a home price correction in 2027-28, and explains why 3% inflation is now the new target. Whalen also discusses why gold and silver are still in early innings, how commercial real estate pain is being quietly resolved in the background, why good bank numbers mask concerning private credit risks, and answers a viewer question about BOJ rate hikes potentially triggering a broader correction.

Links:    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 

https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira785

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   

https://international-economy.com/TIE_Su25_Whalen.pdf

Timestamps:

00:00 Welcome Chris Whalen

01:10 Kevin Hassett: Did he blow his chances for Fed Chair?

03:38 Reforming the Fed: Decentralized model vs FDR's changes

04:11 How decentralization would change Fed policy

06:08 Fed must be independent of President, not Congress

07:44 Post-1935 power concentration with Fed Chair

08:11 How centralization distorted monetary policy

09:17 Has the Fed been acting like its own hedge fund?

10:30 Home price correction coming in 2027-28

11:14 Subscribe reminder

11:52 Trump's rate talk pushing yields UP not down

12:56 Advice to Trump: Talk about growth and jobs, not rates

14:09 Kevin Warsh as emerging frontrunner for Fed Chair

15:17 Scrap the dual mandate, focus on sound currency

16:41 CPI print this week: 3% is the new target

17:23 Raising conforming limits encourages more inflation

18:42 Gold, sound money, and what Treasury should do

20:14 Is sound money viable?

21:33 Roosevelt's New Deal legacy and today's problems

22:53 Silver all-time high, gold north of $4,300 - still early innings

24:22 Commercial real estate pain and which banks are exposed

27:10 Private credit, NDFIs and why good bank numbers are concerning

29:37 Inflation driving everything in New York and beyond

30:22 Viewer question: BOJ rate hikes and impact on risk assets

31:44 Wrap up, year-end predictions preview and where to find Chris