Resurgence of Inflation and Wage Negotiations

Andreas Steno, founder of Steno Research, discusses the resurgence of inflation and its impact on the global economy, and his contrarian take that the next move from the Federal Reserve could be a rate hike. 

In this episode, Steno highlights the labor market as a major driver of inflation, with wage pressures increasing due to labor scarcity. Steno suggests that the Federal Reserve may need to hike interest rates instead of cutting them, but acknowledges the political challenges of such a move. 

He also discusses the macro situation in Europe, with Germany and France struggling while southern European economies thrive.

Steno is the former Global Chief Strategist of Nordea, Northern Europe's largest bank.

This episode was recorded on February 19. 

Links: 

https://stenoresearch.com/

https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno

Timestamps 

00:00 Introduction

00:49 The macro view: inflation resurgence

02:38 Indicators of inflation resurgence

04:40 Labor market and wage pressures

07:00 Federal Reserve's interest rate policy

09:00 Possibility of a rate hike

10:26 Implications for markets

14:12 Structural changes in the labor market

15:48 Surprising rebound in asset markets

18:50 The European macro situation 

21:40 Implications of production shifts in Europe

24:00 Watching Europe from the outside

26:00 Portfolio construction 

27:50 The Fed's rate hikes paused too soon

29:15 Parting thoughts