How to Predict the Financial Crisis and Recession

I'm trying to work out whether you qualify to be in that basket of people who predicted the financial crisis and subsequent great recession. But I feel like... I'm not really interested in that. What's abnormal is to get large numbers of institutional players to pretend to believe in a threadbare narrative that no grown-up should ever believe in. And that's what happened around something like value at risk, which had a tremendous amount of weight put on it.