Is There a Soft Landing of the Yield Curve?

U.S. stocks gapped higher at today’s open and held onto big gains through the day, buoyed by signs in July’s Consumer Price Index data that we’ve finally reached an inflection point for inflation. Both headline and core measures came in below consensus forecast, as the question turns to whether the trend has changed. Plunging yields across the U.S. Treasury curve suggest investors believe it has. Weston Nakamura joins Andreas Steno Larsen at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about price action across asset classes leading up to and in the aftermath of this morning’s report. Andreas welcomes Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, for an assessment of the July CPI data in the broader context and the “evolving distribution of probable outcomes.” What does this print mean for markets, especially as it comes from a month when the U.S. economy added more than 500,000 jobs? And what does the Federal Reserve do next? “It’s critical,” as Darius tweeted today, “to have a data-driven process that’s able to recognize it in real-time.”

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