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The Challenges of Making Predictions and the Importance of Optimism
The speakers discuss the challenges of making predictions and the importance of considering both successful and unsuccessful predictions made by experts, comparing it to a batting average. They emphasize the value of optimism in making profitable predictions.
Episode 508: Shaan Puri (https://twitter.com/ShaanVP) and Sam Parr (https://twitter.com/theSamParr) revisit predictions they’ve made over the last three years to see how they stacked up. Were they wrong? Were they right? Did they miss the biggest opportunities of their lives? Find out.
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Check Out Shaan's Stuff:
• Try Shepherd Out - https://www.supportshepherd.com/
• Shaan's Personal Assistant System - http://shaanpuri.com/remoteassistant
• Power Writing Course - https://maven.com/generalist/writing
• Small Boy Newsletter - https://smallboy.co/
• Daily Newsletter - https://www.shaanpuri.com/
Check Out Sam's Stuff:
• Hampton - https://www.joinhampton.com/
• Ideation Bootcamp - https://www.ideationbootcamp.co/
• Copy That - https://copythat.com/
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Show Notes:
(0:00) Intro
(5:00) Prediction: Freezing sperm + DTC-TRT
(11:00) Whiff: Bitclout
(18:00) Prediction: Clout Kitchens
(22:00) Prediction: Clubhouse fails
(27:00) Whiff: Thrasio
(30:00) Whiff: Privacy as a Service
(33:00) Prediction: GPT-3
(37:00) Prediction: Bryan Johnson's Blueprint
(43:00) Inertia is a b*tch
(51:00) Prediction: Paid communities
(58:00) Takeaway: The predictions that matter are on the ones you act on
(1:00:00) Paying attention to irrational behaviors
(1:04:00) Uber credit loophole guy - Where is he?
(1:07:00) New Prediction: Beta.character.ai
(1:09:00) New Prediction: Wounded unicorns
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Links:
• Derek from MPMD on MFM - https://tinyurl.com/2kmvsf3c
• Bucked Up - https://www.buckedup.com/
• Legacy - https://www.givelegacy.com/
• Dadi (acquired by Ro) - https://ro.co/
• Hone - https://honehealth.com/
• Bitclout - https://bitclout.com/
• friend.tech - https://www.friend.tech/
• Clout Kitchens clip - https://tinyurl.com/ycxtp8nk
• Clubhouse - https://www.clubhouse.com/
• Trasio - https://www.thrasio.com/
• DuckDuckGo - https://duckduckgo.com/
• Episode 94 - Is GPT-3 the Next Big Thing - https://tinyurl.com/37wfyphx
• Jasper.ai - https://www.jasper.ai/
• Anthropic - https://www.anthropic.com/
• Blueprint | Bryan Johnson - https://blueprint.bryanjohnson.co/
• Braintree - https://www.braintreepayments.com/
• Monkey Inferno - https://tinyurl.com/yc842nww
• Vistage - https://www.vistage.com/
• EcommerceFuel - https://www.ecommercefuel.com/
• Character.ai - https://beta.character.ai/
• Replika - https://replika.com/
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