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This Is a Hitchcock Horror
The Compound and Friends
Is This the Peak for the Cycle?
The S&P traded for 15 to 19 times from 2014 to 2019, the bottom of the range is low for investor confidence. Earnings typically decline by 25% in a recession. The market didn't turn until 2002 because multiples kept compressing. If we have like every quarter, they knock 5% off their earnings estimates, that could take a long time before we get there.
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