5min chapter

Forward Guidance cover image

Fed Faces "Debt Death Spiral" While Inflation Soars | Luke Gromen & Jim Bianco

Forward Guidance

CHAPTER

The Dollar's Rallying Sharply in a Recession

In a recession, tax receipts are gonna fall. If you raise rates, the true interest expense is gonna rise. The US government will be crowding out global dollar markets with their borrowing to cover just that part of the deficit. So it's basically dollar up rates probably down for a second and then up in a recession or the Fed prints a difference.

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