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The Lay of the Land

The Dividend Cafe

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The Fed's Earnings Season Just Ends

The predominant story in financial markets right now is this question of will they won't they about the Fed about a rate pause. And these things are all somewhat inversely related, so it's kind of a Goldilocks camp. The three schools of thought are school one that the Fed breaks something and then has to start cutting pretty dramatically because of the breakage which is likely code for a recession. Camp two is no they're not breaking anything and they're just going to stay high and bond yields will come higher with little impact on corporate profits. Then camp three is no the Fed does start cutting but not because they broke something just because they stick the landing.

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