Does the Fed Need to Rake Rates Higher to Hit Payrolls?

Timing of recession has been the difference for a lot of forecasts. The Fed may be able to, I think the Fed believes they're restrictive at the moment. But there's evidence that suggests they're maybe not as restrictive as they thought. And so if you're in the Fed shoes and you think you're already into sufficiently restrictive territory, then it's just a function of time from here that they need to let their rate policy work through the system. That would point to additional QT or more aggressive QT and balance sheet operations.