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Why stupid people think they’re smart
Nudge
The Importance of Overconfidence
Psychologists Howard Raffia and Mark Alpert have interviewed hundreds of people to better understand overconfidence. They asked participants to estimate the total egg production in the US, or the number of foreign automobiles imported into the U.S. The researchers found that people were incredibly overconfident even when they didn't need to be. Experts suffer from overconfidence just as much as non-experts. According to Nikkadis Talad, 84% of Frenchman estimate that they are above average lovers.
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