Navigating Economic Complexity: Inflation, Trade, and Global Markets

While official US July producer price inflation numbers were higher than expected, the signs of the progression of trade taxes were as expected. Supply chains have become longer and more complex—trade taxes progress down supply chains over months, not days. Rising producer prices without rising consumer prices does not automatically mean profits are being squeezed—it means goods in stores represent pre-tariff production, but goods at factory gates are increasingly using tariffed inputs.