3min chapter

The Inside View cover image

10. Peter Wildeford on Forecasting

The Inside View

CHAPTER

Is Putin a Rational Actor?

i think there's been like two in the past 50 years at least that's what li sawin the data of metaculous and am, so if we do like 2 in the past fif te years, it gives us like a base rate of four %. M but then, im, i don't now the probility of it a discalating into a, yes, some kind of fool kill. I assume that puttenstill doesn't want to and all of russia. In fact, he seems pretty obsessed with his own survival, in the survival of the russian state. A, which os, i think, why the united states is taking extreme pains to avoid making

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