Where The Next Big Bond Trade Is Hiding | Harley Bassman
Forward Guidance
Understanding Forward Rates and Market Dynamics
This chapter examines the significance of implied forward rates in interest rate predictions and market behaviors, using treasury securities to illustrate break-even points. It contrasts market expectations of future fed funds rates with Federal Reserve projections, prompting discussions on trading strategies and the bond market's interpretation of interest rates. The analysis also addresses the impact of Federal Reserve policies on the yield curve, highlighting the complexities of bond investing and the implications of a persistent budget deficit in the current economic environment.
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