On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Garrett Baldwin to the show. Garrett is a research economist, financial analyst, and investigative journalist. He's also a contributor to our flagship newsletter, Stansberry's Investment Advisory, as well as author of the Me and the Money Printer Substack.
Garrett kicks off the show by explaining how he got his start in finance, why leaving the gold standard was the American economy's "core breaking point," and how liquidity is driving boom and bust cycles. He says that even though Consumer Price Index inflation can come in at 3% officially, actual currency debasement is 6% to 8% per year based on real assets. This leads Garrett to break down the "Cantillon effect," how everyday folks are most disadvantaged by excessive money printing, and why the American manufacturing sector has been destroyed. He also delves into the troubling trend of Americans essentially paying rent to foreign investors, why we'll "hit a wall" in 2026 or 2027, and how you can protect yourself from the inevitable fallout. (0:59)
Next, Garrett analyzes a pattern that warns him to flee the markets, plus the contrarian signal of insider buying that he uses to time his reentry into the markets. He notes that this trend has been playing out consistently since 2008 and allows those aware to successfully buy the dip. Garrett says that company fundamentals still matter, however, and he explains what he looks for in a company before investing. He then reviews liquidity versus momentum, the Federal Reserve's relationship to liquidity, a core problem with the traditional banking system, and why the Fed tolerates shadow banking. (21:48)
Finally, Garrett talks about the relationship between liquidity and bitcoin, why he likes silver today, and how quantitative easing paradoxically leads to a higher dollar. He explains that many paradoxes in our fiat currency system started in the 1990s, thanks to six major policy shifts and their incentives. Garrett goes in depth on how such policy has affected our financial system today and made the Fed more consequential for our wallets than the president. (41:38)
