Do you know the difference between accurate forecasting and effective forecasting?

Technology forecaster Paul Saffo says accurate forecasting is nearly impossible to do. But if you aim for effective forecasting, he notes, then at least you’re considering the full range of reasonable possibilities for the future, rather than jumping to one conclusion and preparing only for that outcome. “If you head straight towards accurate forecasting, you may end up in a much worse situation by overlooking things that eventually come to pass,” Saffo argues.

In this episode, he shares his six rules for effective forecasting—from visualizing future uncertainty to discerning patterns in past data—and explains why it’s important to be your own worst critic of your forecasts.

Key episode topics include: strategy, strategic planning, risk management, decision making and problem solving, forecasting, technology.

HBR On Strategy curates the best case studies and conversations with the world’s top business and management experts, to help you unlock new ways of doing business. New episodes every week.

· Listen to the full HBR IdeaCast episode: Six Rules for Effective Forecasting (2007)

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