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Pirates of Finance
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The Narrative Cycle of the Bear Market
Those who call it correct, pound their chest about their performance. When the market starts going against them, they start to say, well, it's all about managing risk. And then eventually they go, if the market becomes a bull market, they go, oh no, I flipped, I was bullish. It's like fishing or golf stories, man, it's a narrative fallacy in hindsight. But another example of it is, you know, Hugh Henry, love him or hate him. He made his bones for over a decade as a negatively correlated but positive carry fund. Like he did an amazing job over like a 10, 15 year period.
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