
From the Vault: Regression to the Mean
Stuff To Blow Your Mind
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Regression Towards the Mean Can Overstate the Effects of Something
regression towards the mean can also overstate the effectiveness of something like traffic light cameras. The more chance and random variation plays a role in the outcome, the more you will tend to observe regression toward the mean after an extreme sample for whatever it is you're looking at. It's important to realize that RTM doesn't apply to every sequence of values you could repeatedly sample.
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