Which Middle East States Could Democratize?

On today’s Chuck ToddCast, Chuck breaks down how Donald Trump is being consumed by the growing Epstein feeding frenzy — from his inexplicable softness toward Ghislaine Maxwell to signs he may be genuinely afraid of what she knows. As Trump lashes out at Thomas Massie and Marjorie Taylor Greene with the same fury he once reserved for impeachment-backers, his grip on the GOP shows early signs of slipping, even as the DOJ considers whether reopening the Epstein investigation could delay the release of sensitive files. With the economy struggling, tariffs quietly being dropped, and ACA subsidies suddenly in play, Trump’s visible panic comes at a politically vulnerable moment. Chuck also recaps conversations from the Texas Tribune Festival, where potential Democratic contenders like Wes Moore and Tim Walz signaled a return to mainstream, service-rooted politics — and where Moore’s centrist lane and military background set him apart as 2028 speculation slowly heats up.

Then, historian and author David Lesch joins Chuck to discuss the new book Dodgers to Damascus — an unexpected blend of Middle Eastern politics and baseball. Lesch traces his path from aspiring major-leaguer to one of America’s foremost scholars on Syria, explaining how the fall of the Ottoman Empire, artificial borders drawn by European powers, and a lack of cohesive national identity still shape the region today. He offers candid reflections on his relationship with Bashar al-Assad, why Syria is likely drifting toward a sectarian majoritarian state, and whether any country in the Middle East is truly positioned to attempt democracy. From Iran’s teetering leadership to the Saudis’ complicated partnership with the West, Lesch unpacks the geopolitical moment with clarity and experience.

Chuck and David also dive into the surprising ways baseball helped him understand the Middle East — and vice versa. Lesch reflects on the physical toll of pitching, the Braves’ legendary rotation, and why modern sports medicine might have saved his career. The conversation even explores whether the Middle East could ever embrace baseball, the role of Islamophobia in shaping perceptions, and why travel remains one of the strongest antidotes to fear. Ultimately, Dodgers to Damascus is less a sports memoir and more a sweeping look at a region still wrestling with the consequences of history — and this episode brings that complexity to life.

Finally, Chuck hops in the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit several pivotal moments in the history of American conspiracy theories that all fell on the same calendar week, plus he recaps the weekend in college football!

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:00 Trump is being consumed by the Epstein feeding frenzy

04:30 Trump’s leniency towards Ghislaine Maxwell is perplexing

05:15 Trump seems to fear Maxwell…but why?

06:30 There’s something Maxwell knows about Trump that scares him

08:00 Trump goes to war with Thomas Massie and Marjorie Taylor-Greene

09:15 He’s as mad at Massie and Greene as he was with R’s who voted to impeach

11:00 DOJ can avoid releasing the Epstein files by reopening investigation

12:30 Trump is rattled at a time when the economy is struggling

14:00 Administration dropping tariffs, know they’ve raised costs

14:30 It looks like ACA subsidies will actually have a chance to pass

16:00 Offering cash payouts to pay for premiums is a strange solution

17:30 Trump is letting America “see him sweat” over Epstein

19:15 Trump’s influence over the GOP is starting to wane

19:45 If Massie wins his primary, it will be a major rebuke of Trump

20:30 Trump only punishes Republicans who don’t go along with his lies

22:15 We are witnessing the lame duck period beginning for Trump

23:15 Chuck’s experience at Texas Tribune fest, multiple Dem ‘28 hopefuls

24:00 Wes Moore fully embraced the centrist lane during interview with Chuck

25:15 Wes Moore didn’t join the military to “check a political box”

27:00 Tim Walz & Wes Moore agree Trump’s penchant for action is a strong trait

30:15 Wes Moore will run more as a mainstream Dem, not a progressive

35:00 David Lesch joins the Chuck ToddCast

36:00 Origin of “Dodgers to Damascus”

37:00 It’s weird reading about someone else’s writing about yourself

39:30 What drew David to the Middle East

41:15 Most people don’t understand the Middle East pre 1948

42:00 Fall of Ottoman Empire isn’t covered well in public education

44:00 Artificial divisions in Middle East were to benefit Europe

45:45 Countries in the Middle East lack a national identity

46:30 David’s relationship with Bashar Al-Assad

47:30 Assad was raised as an authoritarian and child of conflict

49:30 Any faith in the new leader of Syria to bring about positive change?

51:45 Syria has been helping with counter terrorist operations

53:00 Syria likely on the way to being a sectarian majoritarian state

56:00 Which Middle East country has the best shot at trying democracy?

57:00 Iran’s weakness makes Kurdistan more possible

58:00 Iranian ayatollahs won’t be able hold power when Khamenei dies

59:00 Iran’s government is teetering, and their proxies are weak

1:00:30 Iran would be an economic power if they became a western democracy

1:01:15 Israel is at the apex of military power in the region

1:04:30 The academic case for the Saudis being a partner

1:05:45 Can the Saudis and Iranians co-exist if Iran moderates?

1:07:00 How did baseball give you extra perspective on the middle east

1:09:00 Would modern sports medicine have saved your career?

1:11:00 The motion for pitching is not meant for human anatomy

1:12:30 Throwing sidearm is much less damaging for your arm

1:14:30 The Braves legendary pitching lineup

1:16:00 David wishes he had at least one year in the majors

1:17:15 Nolan Ryan’s missing flexor tendon was his superpower

1:19:30 Teams run the risk of ending pitchers careers early to win a title

1:21:15 Why is Ohtani so unusual, why haven’t pitchers been able to hit?

1:23:15 Could you see people in the Middle East getting into baseball?

1:26:15 Middle East would need a star from that region to rise in MLB

1:27:00 Islamophobia exists on both sides of the isle

1:27:30 Travel helps to cure phobias

1:28:45 Islamophobia is a harder barrier to break than people realize

1:32:15 Dodgers to Damascus is more of a middle east book than baseball

1:33:00 Chuck’s thoughts on the interview with David Lesch

1:33:15 ToddCast Time Machine

1:33:45 Jonestown, JFK assassination, gap in Nixon tapes same calendar week

1:35:00 Jonestown shows a closed information system can destroy judgement

1:36:00 Jonestown shows the consequences of conspiratorial thinking

1:36:45 JFK conspiracy shows what happens when gov’t can’t convince public

1:37:45 JFK’s death caused boomers to mistrust the government

1:38:45 Nixon tape gap reinforced public’s mistrust in government

1:40:15 The public never received justice for Watergate

1:41:15 Americans now process events through lens of government coverup

1:43:30 Public is correct to believe they aren’t getting the entire story

1:45:30 College football recap

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