Unpredictability and Speculation in Politics

This chapter explores the uncertainties surrounding political predictions, particularly focusing on Donald Trump's potential candidacy and the implications for his publicly traded company. The discussion highlights the volatility of stock prices in relation to political fortunes, the influence of major figures like Elon Musk, and the challenges of relying on prediction markets. Additionally, it critiques the behavior of media outlets and the public's reaction during the recent election transition, emphasizing the complexities of the electoral system and the role of traditional news sources.