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Episode 274: The Pitfalls of Retirement Calculators and Being Unrealistically Conservative, AI Musings And Portfolio Reviews As Of July 7. 2023
Risk Parity Radio
The Probability Effect and the Sequence of Returns Risk
Frank: I'm about to reach my financial independence number and I'm spending lots of time using the portfolio visualizers Monte Carlo simulator. Every time I think I'm there, I activate the option to simulate the sequence of returns risk. That one where you can pick the first x years of retirement that would be the worst in terms of market return. And the results are so worrisome that I just keep working a year more. Will I need to work for 10 more years to compensate for the worst 10 years that could happen? Is that the only safe answer? Keep in mind I'm a very, very risk averse investor who has a 50% stock, 30% treasuries, 20
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