Diplomacy and Belief: The Complex Dynamics of Leadership

In this episode, Malcolm and Simone delve deep into understanding Donald Trump's theological beliefs, challenging the initial assumption that Trump lacks a specific theology. The discussion uncovers that Trump has a detailed personal theology heavily influenced by Norman Vincent Peale's teachings and 'The Power of Positive Thinking.' This self-help-centric Christianity shaped much of Trump's behavior and decision-making. Additionally, the episode explores Trump's recent efforts in international peace negotiations and how his contemplation of legacy and afterlife might be influencing his moves to end conflicts around the world.

Malcolm Collins: [00:00:00] Hello, Simone. Today was, it's one of these episodes that's just stunning for me because I come into it being like. You know what? I'm gonna try to untangle what Trump's true theological beliefs are. Okay? And my. Intuition going into this is he just didn't really have a theology. And he just had never thought deeply about this particular subject.

Right. Just Trump is

Simone Collins: great and everyone knows it.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah, he's the best. As I tied dug into it though, I learned that that is very much not true. Whoa. As a. Fairly detailed theology that he doesn't share with the public a lot. So just, you know, this is this, it says not what he signals to the public anymore.

But when you understand his theology, a lot of his behaviors that otherwise seem. Crazy or insane or don't make sense all of a sudden makes sense. In fact, I would argue that to understand and predict Trump's behavior, you need to understand his theology. And the other weird thing about this [00:01:00] theology is while it is not a traditional Christian theology, it came from a traditional Christian Church.

Oh, but just a unique one. Oh, wow. And, and we're gonna go further here because I also think that his theology has changed a lot recently, given that he thinks he's about to die or not about to die, but he's sort of like, it's the end of my life. You know? He's, he's contemplating his legacy. Yeah.

The, the quote recently from him that I absolutely love is if I can see, he's talking about ending the war in the Ukraine. He goes, if I can save 7,000 people a week from being killed, I wanna try and get to heaven if possible. Trump said, I'm hearing that I'm not doing well. I'm really at the bottom of the totem pole, but if I can get to heaven, this will be one of the reasons.

And I just love this idea of Trump beginning to get worried. Because, you know, he is cheated on spouses. He doesn't really go to church. He doesn't seem to understand much about the Bible. If we're, if we're gonna talk about, like, not understanding the, there's the famous quote [00:02:00] that I love. In the Bloomberg interview when asked what his favorite Bible verse is.

And you know, he just like, the Bible's my favorite book.

Speaker: Okay. You mentioned the Bible. You've been talking about how it's your favorite book. And you said, I think last night in Iowa, some people are surprised that you say that. I'm wondering what one or two of your most favored bible, uh, verses are and why? Well, I, I wouldn't want to get into it because to me that's very personal.

Trump: You know, when I talk about the Bible, it's very personal there. So I don't want to get into verses. I don't want to get into. There's verse, it means a lot to you that you think about or cite. The, the Bible means a lot to me, but I don't want to get into specifics, even to cite a verse that you like. No, I don't wanna do that.

I mean, you, an Old Testament guy or a New Testament guy. Uh, probably equal. I think it's just an incredible, the whole Bible is an incredible, I joke, uh, very much so. They always hold up the art of the deal. I say my second favorite book of all time, but, uh, I just think the Bible is just something very special.

Malcolm Collins: I don't, I don't know. I don't know. I can't name a book from, I can't name a quote from it, but it's my favorite book. And usually just

Simone Collins: a very personal thing. I'm not gonna talk about it.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah. And then, and then [00:03:00] during a Family Leadership summit interview, he said.

Why do I have to repent or ask for forgiveness if I'm not making any mistakes? Which is a very Trump thing to say. It's, it does not align with traditional Christian theology. Then once when he was giving a speech to a university campus, he called, and this is the type of thing I do because I don't go to church often.

He said two Corinthians instead of second Corinthians.

Speaker 4: And I, I asked Jerry and I asked some of the folks, because I hear this is a major theme right here, but two Corinthians right, two Corinthians three 17,

Malcolm Collins: oh. Which is exactly the type of thing I do. I'd say two Corinthians or something. Totally. Yeah. But I do, I do that because I don't go to church and I'm reading from a sheet of paper. Yeah. That,

Simone Collins: that's more like, yeah. Just spoken norms. Not, not necessarily a sinus.

Malcolm Collins: No, no, no, no. But , it indicates that he doesn't actually, and we know this from, you know, he, he goes like on holidays and stuff like that. So he is aware, you know, maybe not, not that high up, not that going to church more often in Christian beliefs gets you into heaven more easily.

I'm [00:04:00] just saying like he is aware that he has some vices. Right. And also the way he related to Christianity historically. So. He referred to the Christian Sacrament of communion as drinking, quote unquote, my little wine and eating, quote unquote, my little cracker, and that it made him feel, quote unquote, feel cleansed.

Little wine, my little cracker.

Simone Collins: Why does he say everything 10 times better than anyone else? I, I know. I love it.

Malcolm Collins: But so then in one Christian church setting, he said,

Speaker 5: I love you Christians. I'm not Christian. I love you.

Malcolm Collins: I love you Christians. I'm not Christian. Now a lot of people think he meant to say, I am a Christian. I love you Christians. I am a Christian.

Although that makes less sense. I think he might not have interpreted himself as a full Christian at this time, period. Hmm. So, . Chu born Presbyterian. His parents were Methodists before this. Hmm. But when he was young, the family shifted to a new church. This was in the 1970 seventies and it was called the Marble Collegiate Church in Manhattan. [00:05:00] A reform church run by a guy named Norman Vincent Peele.

Okay. Okay. Now you might be like, what's so special about a church run by a guy named Norman Vincent Peele?

Simone Collins: Yeah.

Malcolm Collins: Well, he invented a philosophy that you've probably heard about called The Power of Positive Thinking.

Simone Collins: No Blended Christianity

Malcolm Collins: with Motivational Self-Help.

Simone Collins: No.

Malcolm Collins: Oh no. Now you're beginning to see, oh.

So Trump grew up going to a church that taught self-help, principles of the eighties through the pulpit. Wow. Or not eighties, early seventies, when it was really beginning to pick up. So, so, and, and Trump really liked this guy called Peel. He calls him a, a, a mentor of his, he prays his preaching style.

We'll go into Trump's connection to him. But, he went to church and drank the Kool-Aid. I mean, [00:06:00] hello

Now I want you to listen to what Trump says about Peel in this particular tape, both to understand just how much Trump actually really enjoyed and took seriously the lessons that Peel was teaching from the pulpit, but also how Trump relates to traditional. Christian concepts like asking God for forgiveness instead of going out and attempting to improve yourself on your own, which is a very self-help thing to do.

Like it reframes some of when you hear stuff and you're like, that's so sacrilegious to, to approach it in this way. When you hear it in the context of how Trump is thinking about it, you're like. Oh, he's not thinking about it in a traditional religious context. He's thinking about it in terms of a, how do I improve myself through the self-help principles I learned at church context.

I.

Speaker 8: I love my church. And Norman Vincent Peel, the great Norman Vincent Peele was my pastor. The [00:07:00] power of positive thinking. Everybody's heard of Norman and I love my church. . He was so great. He would give a sermon you never wanted to leave. Sometimes we have sermons, and every once in a while we think about leaving a little early, right? Even though we're Christian, Dr. Norman Vincent Peel. Frank , would give a sermon.

I'm telling you, I still remember his sermons. It was unbelievable. And what he would do is he'd bring real life situations, modern day situations into the sermon. And you could listen to him all day long. When you left the church, you were disappointed that it was over. He was the greatest guy.

But he was a great, the, the p wrote the Power of Positive Thinking, which is a great book, but, but have you ever asked God for forgiveness?

I am not sure I have. I just go and try and do a better job from there. I don't think so. I think I, if I, if I do something wrong, I think I just try and make it right. I don't bring God into that picture. I don't [00:08:00] Now when I take, you know, when we go and church and, and when I drink my little wine, which is about the only wine I drink and have my little cracker, I guess that's this form of asking for forgiveness.

And I do that as often as possible because I feel cleansed. Okay. But, uh, you know, to me that's important. I do that. But in terms of officially, I should, I see, I could say absolutely and everybody. I don't think in terms of that. I, I think in terms of let's go on and let's make.

And I would point here that Trump knows that what he's supposed to say to appease a Christian audience is, yes, I have you. You see, he says, like, I could say yes and in this conversation in any controversy that come out of this,

Speaker 8: see, I could say absolutely and everybody.

but I'm trying to be as honest as possible about how I relate to God in this moment.

Malcolm Collins: Peel was influenced by a guy called Earnest Holmes, founder of the Science of the Mind, a new thought movement whom Peele regarded as a spiritual mentor. The influence began in the 1920s when Peele studied Holmes [00:09:00] works, adopting ideas like fearless living and shifting focus away from self-doubt Thought, through thought affirmations of God's presence overall, his beliefs blended orthodox Christian elements with new thought philosophy, prioritizing personal empowerment through faith over transcendent doctrines like salvation, solely through Jesus Christ, which some. Critics argued or diluted Christian tenets peel's teachings which Trump encountered through family attendance at the church emphasized avoiding negative thoughts, picturing success and believing one's abilities as a pathway to achievement.

Often framed with a quasi-religious tone of self-sufficiency and prosperity as God's will. Mm-hmm. Trump's version amplified into a worldview where relentless positivity, denial of setback. And the self-belief override external realities, sometimes veering into what critics called magical thinkings. And so a another description of what Peel taught, just Peel was out.

The Trump framing here was [00:10:00] positive affirmations and visualizations of God's health. Essentially it was a form of Christianity dedicated to Bel a, a form of like wishy thinking as we call it. Like that book, the the, the secret, right? Like right. If, if you believe something enough, that thing will come.

You'll manifest

Simone Collins: it. Yeah.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah, you'll manifest it. But it was structured a little differently in a way that I think is actually more emotionally helpful, which is you don't believe in some sort of external goal enough. It's that if you believe in yourself's ability to achieve that goal enough, it will manifest.

And, and, and so it wasn't like traditional manifestation, but it was definitely related to that. But you also needed to believe that you were not capable. Like any failure that you have, you reframe as a success in some way. And all of this is combined with repeated affirmation. And so where do we get evidence that this is sort of what influenced Trump's actual religion?

Right. So [00:11:00] basically I'm saying Trump's religion, like his true religion. If you boil down what he really believed, I think before these last few years, when all of a sudden he's surrounded by Christians and not like New York Socialites was self-help. That was his religion. And a, an extremist form of self-help focused on self-belief.

So in 2000 Wow. Psychological today, interview Trump stated quote, what helped is I refuse to give into the negative circumstances and never lost faith in myself. Note here that he sort of transformed this belief from a faith in Christ or God to a faith in himself. I didn't believe I was finished even when the newspapers were saying so.

He added that a firm believer in the power of being positive. And this mirrors something that Peel said, which was never thinking of failing and avoiding fear, thoughts, framing self, a face as a metaphysical force for overcoming adversity. In the art of the Deal though, came out in 1987, Trump [00:12:00] writes about envisioning grand successes before they happen, such as mentally mapping out deals and properties.

He expands on this in the think big kick. I'm gonna change it to, but here 'cause I'm not gonna curse on a show. Kids might be watching. Saying, if you're going to be thinking, you may as well think big and advising readers to see yourself as victorious. A direct nod. Appeals techniques of quote, formulating a mental picture of success and holding onto it.

Tenaciously end quote. This implies a metaphysical belief that focused thoughts attract results akin to new thoughts. Law of attraction. In Trump, never give up. How I turn my biggest challenges into successes. Trump recounts turning financial lows like his 1990s debt crisis into wins by maintaining positivity.

Quote, you will be attacked for trying to change anything in quote, but quote unquote never give up. He ties this to peel's influence. Emphasizing self-confidence and refusing negativity are key to [00:13:00] manifesting success even when the facts suggests failure. In the book how To Get Rich, 2004. Where he discusses initiative, staccato thinking styles and references, figures like Carl Young for psychological depths, but pivots to practical positivity.

Quote, believe in yourself, exclamation mark, have face in your abilities. Exclamation mark. Echoing the peel verbatim. He recommended self-help books aligning with this, such as peel's work and others on strategic thinking, revealing a curated worldview of mind powered success. And then if you think about weird behaviors, he has like his habit of plastering his name all over his projects like Trump Tower casinos, everything like that.

This stems from one of peel's teachings, quote, raise one's estimate of ability by 10% in quote and desecrate obstacles. During his 1990s bankrupts, he avoided admitting failure instead, reframing them as strategic moves, declaring a quote. Never lost face in [00:14:00] himself.

Simone Collins: Mm. Wow. This explains so much

A great example of something that can seem really confusing until you understand that as a kid when he was in religious services, he learned that to be a good Christian, you're supposed to not admit mistakes. Was him never mentioning anything about the Cofefe tweet? Never, never saying, oh, I, you know, I was just sleep deprived and I just tweeted out something random, but pretending it was some sort of like four D chess move.

Um, and it ended up, I think, paying off for him in the eyes of his fans. What?

Malcolm Collins: in terms of magical thinking in politics.

Yeah, it does. For me, like the moment I heard this, I was like, oh my God, Trump is actually a deeply religious person, and it was a form of Christianity that was actually taught to him in a church.

Simone Collins: Well, and it makes him seem less. It doesn't sound great to say this, but it makes him seem less sociopathic like he wasn't doing this just because he was like, well, I'm just the best and I believe in myself.

He was taught this. He taught from a very young age, was taught at church and that this [00:15:00] is godly way to live life. This is the pious way to live life. This wasn't just him like sociopathically and and pathologically believing in himself. It was him adhering to the faith he was presented with in childhood.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah. They and I and, and it was a form of Christianity talked to him. It was in a local church. Yeah. That branded itself as a reform church. Yeah. Now I, many people may be like a church that teaches you to believe in yourself more than you believe in Christ, and, you know, all of that. That may, they may be like, that's not like actual Christianity.

Okay. Whatever. But it's what Trump was taught with Christianity. Yeah. As he was growing up. Yeah. From a church. Yeah. And I find this really fascinating and it explains bizarre behaviors, like putting his name and giant letters on everything. Yeah.

Speaker 3: Yeah.

Malcolm Collins: And if you, if you look in politics, you also see this, this manifesting power like him, him sort of believing in this, in the way he talks such as calling the [00:16:00] 2016 popular vote loss in the 2020 election results as moral victories.

And then when he was. Early dealing with COVID-19. If you look at this with peel's philosophy of depreciate every so-called obstacle he, he downplayed it in the early days saying it'll disappear like a miracle. Like if he believed that that is what would eventually happen. And this is something that is commonly believed when you go into this, this branch of, metaphysics. If you look at personal alliances and public endorses, Trump has publicly praised Peele as the greatest guy, and as his pastor officiating his first wedding and showing lifelong integration, his family ties. Father Fred's friendship was Peel reinforces shaping metaphysics where self-belief equates to divine favor.

Basically to him, believing in yourself is how you affirm your belief in God. And this belief system feels very intuitive to me because most of my parents were into [00:17:00] this to an extent when I was growing up. And I remember being taught some of these ideas you know, like you, you just believe in yourself enough you know, things will work out for you, like, right,

Simone Collins: like your mom being like.

Make more money and you're like, it, it doesn't exactly work like that. And she's like, just go and tell them to give you more pay. Like,

Malcolm Collins: well, she'd also always scold me if I ever said something negative about myself. Oh yeah. Like if you say negative things about yourself, then those things will manifest in your life.

Simone Collins: Right? Yeah. She was weird about that.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah. And so I like grew up, like that's another reason I probably don't see this as particularly crazy because my parents said this sort of stuff all the time. That's, yeah. This was a philosophy that was really big for people growing up in the seventies. Yeah. And, and eighties.

And so I think a lot of our fans who grew up during that period are like, oh yeah, I remember this was like a cool avant-garde intellectual philosophy during that period. Right. Like Oprah was really into a version of this. Remember through the, that sounds about right. The secret. She was a big promoter of [00:18:00] that.

But I think the secret is a more toxic version of this. I actually think that there are some psychological benefits to Trump's way of interacting with this. But I also wanna go over, we're gonna go over all the other places where he talks about religion because Okay. Okay. I find this really interesting to try and to peel out his religious journey.

But before I do that, I wanna go over. This idea of his evolving spirituality. Because if you, if you look at these older things, like I'm not a Christian, right? I don't think he fully identified as Christian. And why would he? Like he was in New York socialite, living in New York, socialite, the, the parts of the lesson that he took apart the most were the, the psychobabble stuff and the stuff that he didn't take on board was the Christian stuff.

Maybe 'cause it just wasn't taught that much. Well, and I don't think it was

Simone Collins: pervasive, like the kind of Christianity that was. Big in the nineties, for example, was very different from the type of Christianity today, and it was. Not in like New York urban culture. Really?

Malcolm Collins: Yeah. So, so, I do [00:19:00] believe though that he went back to Christianity at one point.

I think maybe originally, like people know we originally converted to our form of Christianity because we thought it was what was best for our kids, not because of a belief that it was true. We came to a belief, and it was true after converting for our kids. And I think that this happens for a lot of people, like a lot of people can say, did JD Vance convert to Catholicism?

Because Peter Thiel was his sort of what's the word here? PA Patron, right? And he, he wanted to win elections, honestly. 75% chance that the original conversion was in part motivated by political beliefs and, and political opportunism. But I believe now he is 100% Catholic. Same with Trump.

I think Trump originally started framing himself as Christian again, not understanding what Christianity was, making these early mistakes, like why would I ask God for forgiveness? I don't make mistakes, right? Like. To him. That's a totally normal thing to say given the church he grew [00:20:00] up in. But because he's been surrounded by believers for so long now, I think that he's beginning to change in these beliefs and really deeply believe in something closer to a traditional form of Christianity.

Speaker 3: Hmm.

Malcolm Collins: And with that, he's, he's now applying his metaphysical framework to this new Christianity to like the, oh God, if heaven does exist, I have sinned a lot. Like, and a lot of people think I've sinned a lot, so like maybe well I gotta do something big so that when I get to the pearly gates and they're like, what about all those times you cheated?

What about all those times? You know, you lusted after other people. What about all those times? He's like, ha, ha. Wait, wait a second here. 7,000 people a day. 7,000 innocent souls a day I saved by ending that war. Can you, can you. It must a day, a day, he's going in there with the art of the deal. He's, he's, he's stacking the hand.

Oh

Simone Collins: my God. [00:21:00]

Malcolm Collins: I almost promise you, like Heath, hes in his head. That's the way heaven works in his brain, is he gets up there and he's like, okay, I am stacking the deck in my favor. I'm gonna do all these, I'm working all these good deeds right before I, right before the end here. And, and I'm okay with that, right?

Like, this is a, this is a, a weight of you. It's, it's not. Difference from like indulgences in early Catholicism. Right, right. It, there are, well, I mean, it's,

Simone Collins: it's even better 'cause he, he's actually doing the thing. I mean, indulgences was just getting people to pray for you. It wasn't materially Yeah. So it, it's even better.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah. He's just like I, he is literally trying to pay in good deeds, which great for him. Nobody tell him that. Most Christians today believe it's it's faith alone. Even Catholics, by the way, a lot of people think Catholics don't believe it's faith alone. Oh, yeah. But Catholics do believe it's faith alone.

But good deeds are also important for like. Another reason I don't fully understand it, but like, I listen to a lot of Theologists on YouTube and this is what they tell me. But anyway don't, don't tell him that or he is gonna stop doing good. Faith [00:22:00] alone seems to be

Simone Collins: like a, a cop out. That's, that's depressing.

Malcolm Collins: But it's not just that. I also think that Trump genuinely cares about people dying, apparently to insiders who know him. It's something that he obsesses over a lot, is people dying in wars. And, and that he talks about a lot. He comes across

Simone Collins: as very, a deeply empathetic person who's, who's affected by human suffering on a profound level.

Absolutely.

Malcolm Collins: So, oh. I now wanna get into a piece that I really liked because I think it shows Trump's sort of quest on this front that was put out by the free press. You know, I love it called Trump's Quest for Heaven. And it's a short piece but I think it really shows is, is, is chase here?

So Trump is getting a fair deal of criticism for his efforts to end Russia's war against Ukraine. Just check out what Peter Baker, the New York Times Chief White House correspondent has been saying about it. And while BAK is no dummy, and I sort of am, I'm kind of impressed with this round of Trump diplomacy.

Trump didn't get the ceasefire he was hoping for when he [00:23:00] met with Vladimir Putin in Alaska last week. But I liked it when a few days later he was in the White House standing with Vladimir Zelinsky and seven European leaders. Trump critics insisted that the Europeans went there to babysit and prevent another fight with Zelinsky in the Oval Office.

But to me it looked like a United West led by the us. Trying sincerely to end the war while showing Putin that we would be very, that he would be very stupid to start another one. And now in a welcome departure from his previous hostile stance for s Kiev, Trump is talking about security guarantees for Ukraine.

They all laughed about Zelensky new suit look in the Oval Office, and there was no spat between him and the vice president. The whole thing was very much like mom and dad might actually work this out in time for Christmas. The Europeans are stepping up and some credit has to be given to Trump. In that regard, they're increasing their defense spending the German, they're rolling out panzers again, which naturally makes us all a bit nervous, but it's probably a good thing in this case, and we can't be sure that they would be doing any of this.

If Trump [00:24:00] hadn't cajoled and brow beaten them for years by repeatedly threatening to withdraw from nato, he might have very well. Have saved it. Could this be the art of the deal in action? I don't wanna go that far. That's the other person saying that I actually think it is. And I think something that people missed in a lot of the sort of, positioning that Trump has, where he'll take one position, then he'll take the other position, then he'll take the other position.

They're like, oh, this is like a failure of negotiation, but it isn't at all a failure. This is what you need to do to negotiate. If people don't know that you can switch teams, then they have no reason to compromise with you. So. Suppose you're in a room with Putin or something like that. And I love this masterful troll that Putin's troops did after the US Putin meeting.

And everyone was like, oh, Trump endorsed Putin by bringing him in the limo. And so they put US flags next to Russian flags on their APCs invading Ukraine. Because of course progressives freak out about that. But then Trump. Immediately goes back and remember the first time he, he meets with Zelensky, he basically shouts them outta the room.

You know, [00:25:00] they're like, how are you not grateful about any of this? They got in a big fight with Zelensky, which as a sign to Putin. So like, you're going to Putin, basically Trump is like going to Putin. Like I have shown publicly that I am willing to play game with you. Right,

Speaker 3: right.

Malcolm Collins: Putin then goes, I'm not gonna end the war.

I'm not gonna budge on anything. Trump then at first Signals, you know, and he did this through a number of like tweets and stuff like this. Like, I'm very angry at Putin about this, right? But then he goes Putin sort of finalizes it in this peace talk where, where Putin's just like, I'm not gonna do it.

So Trump had given Putin the most he could possibly give Putin to put Putin on the good foot if, if Putin was ever gonna be persuaded to do this. Trump needed to first have the big falling out with Zelensky. He then needed to be nice to Putin. He then needed to have this meeting with Putin while also making it clear that he would switch to the other side.

Putin doesn't agree. Then Trump has this meeting with Zelensky reaffirms us support of, of, of, of Ukraine in the war financially. And at the same time, by doing this flip-flop, he gets Europe to fund Ukraine [00:26:00] even more instead of leading us to foot the bill. It sounds good to me across the board it's fairly clever diplomacy.

And a lot of people just fail to see it because I guess they expect politicians to just always have one perspective, which I get right. Like they're used to that. But you can't make a deal if you always have one perspective, because then it's always just a compromised version of that perspective.

You can't go from one party to the other party and be like, well, if I can't make a deal with you, then I'll make a deal with them. And then to continue to the speech, because this is where he, he added the thing about Trump bartering, you know, being like those 7,000 people, Trump seems to really, genuinely wanna in, in this war.

Really, who knows what goes on in Trump's head, but he is gotten good at his peace brokering thing. Earlier this month, he got Armenia and other Bajan to stop shooting each other. In June, he helped a broker, another peace deal between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda. This might be small potatoes compared to Russia, Ukraine, but let's also remember that his bombing of Iran's major nuclear enrichment sites.

Ended the [00:27:00] 12 day war between Iran and Israel. He might not be terrible at this exclamation mark, and I agree with that. I mean, I think a lot of people were like, why is the US getting involved in this particular bombing? But we know Israel wasn't gonna stop the bombing until they felt that they had disarmed Iran in terms of its nuclear projects.

The US basically is like, Hey. We'll come in, we'll do this one big, you know, bunker buster bomb thing, or few big bunker buster bombs, but on the condition you stop bombing immediately after. And they stop bombing after. And then keep in mind, Tyran keeps bombing them for a while after that. And so it took a while to negotiate this, but they got it handled right, like.

That war could have really escalated, and it was Trump's intervention that all of the Democrats criticized him for. That gave Israel the peace of mind to stop the conflict.

Speaker 3: Hmm.

Malcolm Collins: And people can say, why doesn't he in the war in Gaza? And it's like, well, that is a much more existential crisis for Israel.

And I don't really see how that gets resolved. It it [00:28:00] in any, in any way that people want to talk about. But i, I, I think that Trump, and I think that Trump has shrewdly not overly tried to engage there. I don't think that there's much we can do to Israel to get them to end that conflict.

That's not just gonna drive a wedge between our relationship without achieving the set goals. And the more you drive a wedge between that relationship, the more Israel just no longer has any leash at all to do whatever it wants, which I think a lot of these European powers don't worry or don't really grok.

Like if you've already said. I just won't engage with you at all. I won't give you, you know, any funding. I won't connect with you in any way. Why would they, why would they listen to what you're pushing? And no amount of, of cutting things is going to cause Israel to cave on an issue that's so existential for them.

Right? And I note here I also think that Trump as, as in his last administration, did a good job at ending wars. It just seems to be something that he's exceptionally good at and fairly dedicated to. Like he sees this as one of his jobs. Trump's an [00:29:00] old man. He's presumably thinking about his legacy.

Some have speculated that he wants a Nobel Prize, which I'm sure is also true, but also I'd safely wager that is never going to happen. He probably also wants an Oscar, Tony, and any other trophy he can get his hands on. But he'll call up Fox and Friends on Tuesday to announce a different motive behind his diplomacy and that's getting into heaven.

But I think. And this is where, sorry, this is where they had the 7,000 people line. If I can save 7,000 people a week from getting killed I want to try that and get into heaven if possible. Trump said, I'm people, I'm not doing well. I'm really at the bottom of the totem pole, but if I can get into heaven, this will be one of the reasons.

Simone Collins: I love it.

Malcolm Collins: And then the, the person writing the article goes on to say for a second there, Trump sounded like an old school Catholic, which he very much is not having been raised a Presbyterian, and it's the first time I can remember this president musing about the afterlife. I respect Trump, how Trump never pretended to be an evangelical, despite the tremendous weight in GOP primaries.

When [00:30:00] he first ran for president, who can forget when he said he'd never in his life asked God for forgiveness. He's a sinner and a somewhat proud one. Trump's religious foundation, such as it is, was largely forwarded under the guidance of Protestant. Preacher turned self-help guru. Norman Vincent Peel.

Best known for the book The Power of Positive Thinking Peele, even Officiated Trump's first wedding. But while Trump certainly took confidence, building aspects of peel's, thinking seriously, one of peel's most famous pearls of self-help tude quote, make a true estimate of your ability, then raise it 10%.

In quote, this president has never appeared partial to the whole Jesus thing. I'm not naive enough to say that perhaps Trump is changing or growing before our eyes. As of now, as far as I'm concerned, he's the same venal jerk he's always been. Then again, perhaps this is a guy who facing the end of his political re.

Career in just a few short years is reckoning a bit with his mortality and deepening ever so slightly. And if he's motivated to end wars by the [00:31:00] prospect of seeing those pearly gates on, which he presumably will install a gold mailbox, it's a good trade to me. Actually, that, that's actually a good point.

I, I wonder even trump's mind, the pearl gates are gold. And not, not Pearl. I'm, I'm sure they are. When he pictures them, it's gold. And the angel is at a gold podium. Well

Simone Collins: actually I think in so many cartoons they are just drawn as being gold. It's more visually appealing.

Malcolm Collins: Okay. Okay. Well, I just Google

Simone Collins: image search Pearly gates.

Yeah. They often look pretty freaking gold.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah. Actually. Do you think it has a, do you think it has a, a big T on it that that opens up? Yeah. Just put his name on it. Donald Trump. Donald. I, I would love that. Did they do a south park about that? I, I feel like. People would, would absolutely freak out about the idea of like Trump buying heaven and like branding it all Trump themed.

And that, that sounds like a Salesforce episode to me.

Simone Collins: Well, in the first one of the new season they did, or second one, [00:32:00] they, they went to heaven to get the,, Mexicans or whatever.

Malcolm Collins: To, oh yeah. To arrest the Mexicans. You were like shooting them all to, to deport them all. Yeah. The, that was, that was great.

Yeah. But yeah, so this to me is a really interesting thing to think about. One that people who were earlier, you know, you can tell from this guy's writing, he's. Trump skeptic, but he's like in this one area, Trump seems to be fairly dedicated to, to win the battles he can win and to not attempt the battles he can't win, and to engage in areas where there's conflict, where even the US isn't involved.

I do like I, I do and, and people can be like, well, are you suggesting that Trump was lying when he first said he was a Christian? And that it took a while for him to, like, I. Yeah, probably. I mean, we know that Trump has lied about things before. I don't think that there's like some Republican faction that thinks that Trump is not a person who would lie to [00:33:00] get a deal in his favor, right?

But I also think that now. So close to the end of his life, he is genuinely motivated, boast by the compassion he has for other people but by beginning to reengage metaphysically while keeping in mind his metaphysical roots. So what, what do you get here, Simone?

Simone Collins: So there's variation, but the most commonly cited by the, the White House and the Trump administration are the nagorno.

ACH conflict. This is between Armenia and Azerbaijan. He helped broker a peace agreement in August, 2025. So like actually just now that ended decades of violence. There's a Democratic Republic of Republic of Congo in Rwanda. So in June of 2025, the DRC and Rwanda signed a peace agreement that was brokered at the White House.

Oh, that

Malcolm Collins: one was really bad. That one had a genocide as a component of it.

Simone Collins: Yeah, and, and the whole peace agreement was aimed at ending the cross border violence in a major humanitarian crisis. So [00:34:00] that's, that's pretty cool. I mean, I guess, you know, TBD 'cause it was just June. How that goes. Then three is Serbia and Kosovo.

Trump claims credit for facilitating peace talks in normalization between Serbia and Kosovo, which have been in conflict since the breakup of Yugoslavia. And then Egypt and Ethiopia, the Grand Ethiopian. Oh, Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Dispute, which I've never heard of.

Malcolm Collins: Oh, that, oh, I've read a lot on this.

It's really bad. It was almost certainly gonna, that's not gonna lead to a war. Now,

Simone Collins: there were tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia. Oh, Ethiopia. Over the Nile Dam, which had raised the risk of armed escalation. I

Malcolm Collins: Oh, yeah. Yeah. Okay. So I'll say there's a

Simone Collins: dam on the, on the

Malcolm Collins: Nile. Yeah. So it almost certainly would've caused a, a war.

So. Ethiopia is is upstream of Egypt on the Nile, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Nile. Big river, right? Big important. If you put a dam in the Nile, you can have most of the power needs. Is the entire country of Ethiopia met? Oh, now Egypt to loses [00:35:00] fresh water. Egypt's entire civilization is built on the Nile. If you, if you look at where people live in Egypt, it's all right around the Nile and they don't even have enough fresh water as it is in Egypt for their existing crops and infrastructure needs.

Yeah. So if it, it's, it's an existential issue for both countries for you know, ethiopia's free power for a huge chunk of their country. For Egypt, it is. Into their ability to live. You can see why both countries would go for it.

Simone Collins: Okay. Yeah, I totally get that now that that is totally fair. And then India and Pakistan, the White House includes Trump's diplomatic involvement to deescalate border tensions between India and Pakistan, particularly over kashmere.

No formal peace treaty was signed, but violence reportedly subsided after US led negotiations. That was flaring up in May, so, yeah, no.

Malcolm Collins: And, and the countries have nominated him for a Nobel Prize.

Sorry, it was Pakistan [00:36:00] only, not India as well, , because India has some weird thing about foreign powers intervening in the, in the mediations. But anyway, Pakistan who nominated him for a peace prize stating, , it was for his decisive diplomatic intervention and pivotal leadership.

Malcolm Collins: So for that I can't remember if it was in India or Pakistan, but Go Trump. I think Pakistan actually.

Yeah. I mean, cops, so, yeah. , He, he definitely, from their perspective was the key player in ending the conflict. You know, you don't do that if, if you don't think that he was the one who got this done, and that could have been a nuclear war, that could have been an absolutely egregious war. No,

Speaker 3: absolutely.

Malcolm Collins: But can you look at the ones from the last administration of his 'cause those are all from this administration. I don't want what the, what he, and also look at the context of them. But the other thing I wanted to note here is the war end with the Ukraine. So a lot of people, they'll look at me and they'll be like, well, you don't just wanna end a war.

Like, what about all the people who have died so far in the war, in the Ukraine? Like, how dare he end this on Russia's terms, IE [00:37:00] keeping the existing land, and even in some areas pushing back. Passed the existing front lines. Mm. I actually think the deal that he was trying to get from Russia of keeping the existing land and pushing past the front, front lines in a few areas was an extremely good deal from the Ukrainian perspective, especially if Ukraine could loop in UN membership to it.

I don't think that they'd be able to get NATO membership, but I think they could have gotten you in membership if they made the territorial concessions. Mm-hmm. And people could say, Malcolm, Malcolm. Malcolm, how could you say that? And I'm like, bro, Ukraine has a fertility rate of like 1.2. They're basically halfing their population.

Every generation. Russia is at about the same level. Okay. In, in the new world order where. Populations of productive individuals are falling rapidly. What matters is your population, not how much land you have. Mm-hmm. And if you, you trade a population for, for dirt people. A hundred years from now, we're just gonna see it as crazy.

They're gonna be like, why did anyone ever [00:38:00] do that? Why did they, yeah. No one cares. Worst trading human lives for soil, right? Like, as, as soon as you know that you're gonna be losing, you know, a thousand citizens a day or something like that you know, keep in mind these are, these are fathers of people's kids and stuff like that, right?

You get to a point where you've just gotta be like. I guess that now we just have to say, it sucks that this happening. You could be like, oh, you are, you are giving into a dictator. Right? And I always point out Russia is not in a position now to do another war. Everyone's like, oh, next civil attack.

You know. Northern Europe or something like that. I'm like the, they had this giant stockpile from the so cold war of old musicians and old planes and old trucks, munitions munitions. Yeah.

Simone Collins: You said musicians and it was just musician, this stockpile of old musicians,

Malcolm Collins: but they shot at the Ukrainian.

Yeah. So, the they of, of mimes as well. [00:39:00] Mimes so they, they, they sent their mimes and musicians to the Ukraine. No, but they had this giant stockpile, and that is what allowed them to fight the beginning of this war. But they have burned through that stockpile at this point. No kidding. And second, they also lost a lot of their fighting population.

They just don't have like. No, normal country would've fought a a to a level of depletion of their troops as Russia has. The only reason they fought this far is because Ukraine's allies are basically keeping it from invading Russia. And the, the way we know that is when there was Ian's you know, turning against Putin and then Mark.

Marching on wa Moscow, right? There was no forces to stop him. He was basically just able to march straight to Moscow, it looks like, was very little pushback with only a fairly small contingent of troops which showed that Russia cannot defend itself right now if somebody went into Russian territory.

Simone Collins: Well, I mean though that didn't exactly. [00:40:00]

Malcolm Collins: Well, positive

Simone Collins: revolution. It didn't

Malcolm Collins: exactly go the way he wanted it to. But it was not because of Russia's ability to defend itself with its own troops. Right. It was due to sort of internal politics. Yeah. So that was, that was not, not great for Russia. But yeah, the point I'm making here is, and in addition to all of that, like not only did they not have the manpower or anything like that but.

This war, Putin went into it because all of his intelligence told him, this is gonna be really easy. You're gonna be able to run and take the capitol. Yeah. Everyone's gonna forget about it. We've paid off

Simone Collins: all the politicians. Don't worry about it.

Malcolm Collins: We've paid off all the politicians. This is what everything, even if.

All of Putin's intelligence services we're telling him, don't worry, you can just take Estonia. You can just take Finland. You don't need to worry about this at all. We've handled everything. Europe's not gonna react, which they're not telling him, I, I promise you, this is not what they're telling him because this isn't true.

But even if they did tell him that, do you think he's gonna believe it This. Do, do you think he's going to [00:41:00] risk a giant black eye like this again? No, he's not. Not for the rest of his life. Is he going to risk this again? This idea that he's just gonna be like, oh, I won that one. Yay. Look at these, you know, minor territorial gains I made.

What's gonna happen is he's gonna be like, well, I better make sure I don't do that again because I am out of weapons. And I am in a dangerous poli position geopolitically because of my incredibly low fertility rates, which are lower than most European countries. And, and keep in mind they also had giant brain drain as well because of the war which again puts them on the back foot economically when they switch out of a wartime economy.

So I just, I just don't see that. And then people are like, what about the w nukes? I, I point out to people. That Russia hasn't successfully tested one of its nukes since before I was born.

Simone Collins: Oh boy.

Malcolm Collins: Since, well, and if, you know,

Simone Collins: if, if their nukes are in any condition, like the rest of their military equipment were incredibly

Malcolm Collins: hard to keep up.

Yeah, yeah. Since, since 30, [00:42:00] 30 years ago or more since, since anyone has tested that these nukes work, i, I can guarantee you they are terrified to attempt to use one of these news and you can say, oh, well, you know, at least they try it. I was like, you know what? The fact that they haven't tested one recently to show the world that they still work to me indicates that they know they don't.

So I, I've just not worried at all there because if, if he wanted to do that, what he would do, like, this is me, okay. I'm in Putin's shoes, right? Okay. I want to be able to use nukes to scare people and other politicians in a war. What do I do? I go and I secretly test some to see if they work and then if they work, I announce that the test happened.

Obviously it comes up on like Seism, Mcgras and like public stuff and everybody else knows they work. But I do this in secret. And I would certainly try this. I'd wanna know if this stuff works. So my best guess is Putin actually has tested the nukes. Oh no. Not that they don't work. I don't see why he would leave this up to chance.

That just seems illogical. So my best guess is Putin has tested his nukes and he [00:43:00] knows they don't work. Now people would say, you shouldn't roll the dice on something like that, but I'm like, but there's not a lot of reason for Putin to escalate in that way because that would cause other people to, to escalate with potentially attacking the homeland even if they don't go in with nukes.

And that's very bad for him. Like you can say like, well, what if one in five of them works or something like that? Still very dangerous for him to engage in that sort of, you know, doing a what's the word I'm looking for here? Coordinated like nu nuke strike.

Simone Collins: Oh. Mm.

Malcolm Collins: And keep in mind, every part of the nuke has to work.

The giant missile has to work. The, the warhead has to work. True. It's so many things when you, when you look at the fact that the jets had, had been like internally stripped and all their parts had been sold so

Simone Collins: bad,

Malcolm Collins: I'm not so worried about the nukes. But anyway the, the point here being is I actually think that from a morality perspective.

I know it sucks, but in terms of what you can realistically accomplish, because why would Putin give up his territorial games? Like, like just think about it like a, [00:44:00] a businessman doing a deal. Why is Putin going to give those up? You could say because his people are dying. Not exactly, he's in kind of a different position than the Ukraine in terms of people dying.

So, Putin. Puts into his troops people who are in prison systems people who are of ethnic minorities, he doesn't really put lots of productive ethnic Russians in his troops. When I say ethnic Russians, I mean like of, of his sort of Slavic of ethnic background. He is essentially trying to create.

A eugenic genetic pressure through the, the, the war while also shoring up his ethnic group, which is uniquely low fertility by exterminating other ethnic groups. For him, it's kind of okay if the war keeps going on. In the Ukraine, that's not the case. In the Ukraine, it's like patriotic Ukrainian like programmers who are in the war.

So it's a very different scenario in terms of how each side values the lives that are dying. And [00:45:00] Simone recently asked me, well, how can, how can Zel, why isn't Zelensky taking the deal if it just ends the death? And I'm like two things. He genuinely does believe Russia will attack again. Which I think, you know, they did attack GE Georgia again after the peace deals, so I understand that.

And the US did have a PAX saying that they would protect U Ukraine when Ukraine gave up its nukes. So I can see why he doesn't believe us when we say otherwise now. But, I what was I gonna say here? I, I just think he's wrong in this assertion. If he can get EU membership. I do not think that if he can get EU membership, people will see this the same or Putin would see attacking it the same.

I mean, it would be a huge win economically for the existing people who do survive within the Ukraine. The, the second reason I think he's doing it is because he is really scared, legacy wise about all of the people who sacrificed themselves sort of having their lives not matter in his eyes, but they saved all of Ukraine.

You could, you. Putin wanted Kiev. Putin wanted the whole [00:46:00] thing. Okay. Yeah. So yeah, that's where we are was at. And I appreciate what Trump is doing with this, by the way wars ended in the first administration. Did you get any here

Simone Collins: highlighted is Israel and the UAE, the Abraham Accords. That was the big one.

August, 2020.

Malcolm Collins: Big one. Yeah.

Simone Collins: Yeah. Then there was also Serbia and Kosovo Trump administration facilitated economic normalization agreements in September, 2020. I don't remember, but I mean, it was 2020. Who knows what was going on there. Right? Yeah. Then also in February of 2020, so before the pandemic really hit, there was a Taliban peace deal in Afghanistan where the Trump administration signed a conditional peace agreement within the Taliban setting a timeline for the withdrawal of US troops in Afghanistan.

I mean, that didn't exactly

Malcolm Collins: play out. Yeah. End

Simone Collins: well, but they tried, so I mean, you know, well, it

Malcolm Collins: ended well as long as Trump was in office.

Simone Collins: Yeah. Yeah. They were on their way. There was, there was theoretically a path and then Biden was like, yo, [00:47:00] just

Malcolm Collins: have a spectacular day. Simone. Does this change your view of Trump?

Totally.

Simone Collins: No. This, this explains it. It, it really, it humanizes him more. It gives him, it makes him seem more moral and less. Like selfish and delusional. It's very interesting. So thank you for Yeah. Digging deeper here. 'cause who knew, right? I just thought the punchline was, you know, that great exchange with Trump being asked what his favorite Bible passages were and him just being like, I, that's highly personal.

I don't talk about it.

Malcolm Collins: No, no. I don't wanna talk. The one that says, you're the best. If you believe you're the best.

Simone Collins: Yeah, that one. Love

Malcolm Collins: you. Love you too.

All.

Simone Collins: How about [00:48:00] now?

Malcolm Collins: All right. How am I coming through?

Simone Collins: Yes, I can hear you now. Good.

Malcolm Collins: That is absolutely wonderful.

Simone Collins: Sorry for being late again to start this. I'm like, okay, everything's set. I'm all good to go's. Just gonna quickly change Indy's diaper before her nap. But of course it's diarrhea and of course it's blowout. And of course, the moment that I open up her diaper, she shoves her shirt down into it, and then she takes her other hand and she grabs down into it.

And I, I don't like, do I need to hog tie her just to change her diaper now? Like, what? What am I supposed? She hates

Malcolm Collins: you. That's why the cleanup, the. She just loves tormenting you.

Simone Collins: All of her children do. My gosh, last night does it. Oh my God. Does it float after

Malcolm Collins: night? I love that you heard that and you knew there was a major issue going on.

I

Simone Collins: spent the night telling Titan and Torsten, it's not okay to play with water on unless these's very specific [00:49:00] contexts are in place. Like it's okay to use the toilet and wash your hands and brush your teeth and play with water toys at water time, but we don't play with water in the house. What's the first thing they do when they go to bed?

Malcolm Collins: Go to the sink. Fill up a bucket, bring it over to bed. Oh my God, I love that you could hear them through the floor. Just a little

Simone Collins: sink. Thank goodness our house is so old. You can just hear

Malcolm Collins: everything everywhere. So comments today.

Simone Collins: You

Malcolm Collins: said some were good. I, I guess,

Simone Collins: yeah. No, it's, it's so funny how like videos that perf like the YouTube algorithm loves or hates.

It doesn't predict whether people will love it or hate it on X or on substack or elsewhere. I really don't know what to expect anymore. But yeah, I think a lot of people pointed out that. Also like economic growth in prospects [00:50:00] was a major factor in whether a country had a baby boom. Like it wasn't just looking forward to a bright future because you could argue that in Soviet countries there was at least a lot of optimistic propaganda.

So also. Apparently Austria wasn't communist, so maybe No, it was split. The AI was wrong. I, I, I will dig into this more, but hopefully I get sweet, sweet vindication. So we'll see. As for ai, there's this really big bifurcation between people who like. I just don't get it yet. Or because they personally don't see it, they just re, regardless of us saying it's probably an issue of you're just not personally seeing it.

Like they still refuse to believe that it's going to be, be disruptive. And then that those who get it. Plenty of people say, well, yeah, but I still think that many large AI [00:51:00] companies are in a bubble. And I don't doubt that at all, and I don't think you doubt that either. Yeah, I didn't. They're massively overvalued, especially because you believe, and I think that you have very good reason to believe this, that they're likely to become commoditized and undifferentiated in the end.

Yeah. So yeah, absolutely. There's an AI company bubble, but that doesn't mean AI is overhyped and people just trying to like, I. Lull themselves into this false sense of security that AI is not gonna change everything very fundamentally. Is, is silly. There are also some people who are like, well, AI hasn't changed that much.

I've only done like this, that, and the other thing with it. And they like proceed to talk about how like, huge flows in their life have changed. But they're like, but I could, I could never use it to do this aspect of my work. And it's like, well. Yeah, but you just rattled off like five other things that you've completely outsourced to ai now, I dunno what to tell you, but like AI has probably changed your life.

I think they forget.

Malcolm Collins: It's like you, you normalize to a new luxury. They forget how [00:52:00] much they're using it.

Simone Collins: Oh yeah. Someone's comment also is like I mean, consider how life hasn't really changed that much since the nineties. And I'm like,

Speaker 3: what you mean whatcha talking

Simone Collins: about? Yeah. I mean, I'm hoping that was a joke.

There was some SAR chasm between us.

Malcolm Collins: Some. I I hope that was SAR chasm.

Simone Collins: Yeah, I hope so too. But we'll

Malcolm Collins: see. The person who was like, AI is just a lossy algorithm, and you're like, okay, it's to lossy algorithm speaking for a lossy algorithm, you know? Yeah. You're doing great. Not that. Anyway, I'll, I'll get started on this one.

Awesome.

Speaker 6: Okay. What? So what happened, Torsten, can you explain? Well, I was blowing over into the mud bed. I just octavian, did you make a mud moat around our house? Yes, I did. And is that how we're gonna be protected? Yeah. And what happens when a bad guy gets in the mud vote? Um, he'll not wipe it. The mud and my niece distracted.

Speaker 7: He did the mud off and get us shoot [00:53:00] him like this. That makes a lot of sense. Professor, what about you? What are you gonna do when the bad guy gets in the mud? Mud

Speaker 6: something. What'd you find? What was my, this? Oh my God, it's a crystal. Yeah, sir. Dirty. She cleaned it off. Well, you can clean it off with water, by the way. Corten, I think that's quartz sir.

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