Cancer Testing Diagnostics: The Future of Diagnostics

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The total addressable market for cancer testing diagnostics in the US is about 95 billion, only about 5 billion of revenues being generated today. At the current growth rate, which we estimate to be north of 20% per year, we think that by the end of the decade, that revenue will grow to 24 billion. Cancer screening and MRD are going to be disproportionately large contributors to that revenue opportunity. And so I'll just conclude by saying that, look, you know, I think this is one of the most exciting areas certainly for us as a life science team to really focus on.

Welcome to the Big Ideas Monday Miniseries, brought to you by the For Your Innovation Podcast.

Big Ideas is meant to enlighten investors on the long-term impact of innovation. This annual research report seeks to highlight the technological breakthroughs evolving today and creating the potential for super-exponential growth tomorrow.

We believe that innovation is taking off now, corroborating our original research and boosting our confidence that ARK’s strategies are on the right side of change.

To learn more, view Big Ideas 2023.

This week’s Big Ideas Monday Mini Episode focuses on Molecular Diagnostics. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) costs have collapsed, making molecular diagnostic tests more feasible and turbocharging our understanding of tumor biology.[1]

By leveraging artificial intelligence (AI), cancer diagnostics labs have created less invasive tests like liquid biopsies to supplement tissue biopsies.[2]

As proof of clinical utility accumulates, ARK estimates that the total addressable market (TAM) for molecular cancer diagnostic tests in the US is ~$95 billion, its revenue increasing more than 20% annually during the next five to ten years, from ~$5 billion in 2022 to $24 billion in 2030. Moreover, the collective enterprise value of molecular cancer testing companies should expand at a similar rate from ~$30 billion in 2022 to $145 billion in 2030.

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