Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy cover image

Michael Mauboussin - Man + Machine, Moats, and Power of the Outside View - [Invest Like the Best, EP.37]

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

CHAPTER

The Shrinkage Factor, Is It Exactly Right?

Shrinkage is basically a measure of how quickly does something revert towards the mean, precisely. If any time the correlation between a measurement a and measurement b is less than one point zero, you have progression toward the mean. So this, the shrinkage factor, tells you the rate at which it happens. And going back to our amazon example, could they grow 15 % or more? Of course, it doesn't mean that they're not going to do that, but it is a mechanism to temper your views in a way that'l get you more correct place.

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