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Episode 003: Probabilities vs. Absolutes with Ted Seides

The Decision Education Podcast

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How to Reduce Overconfidence in a Group of People

The pre mortem analysis is probably the most effective, as far as i understand. The idea is that commonly, if somebody makes an investment and it goes badly, at the end of that they might conduct a post mortem analysis. Once you're doing the post mortem, it's alreadly too late. The know, the body's already dead. If you can find up a process that's relatively straightforward, imagine that your plan or your decision has gone wrong then try to figure out what might have caused it to go wrong. It also tively reduces the over confidence of a group. That's the most powerful one. Or even as simple with one person as a pro in

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