There is still substantial uncertainty around those central estimates. There is plenty of time left until the election. So in either case, we expect the size of the majority for whichever party wins to be fairly narrow. The model wouldn't be surprised with anything as low as forty seven for the democrats or as high as 54.
Our model, built to predict the outcome of this year’s midterm elections, tips Republicans to take the House and Democrats to retain control of the Senate. The model’s architect discusses how and why he built it, and our polling guru explains why polls matter. Why there’s no nuclear-arms race in Asia—yet. And Egypt wants the Rosetta Stone back, but it’s not that simple.
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