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The Value Perspective with Dan Rasmussen 2.0

The Value Perspective

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The Kelly Criterion and St. Petersburg Paradox

The Kelly Criterion and St. Petersburg paradox are important points for investors to consider, says David Frum. If you have an investment with a zero percent expected return, it has a variance of 10%. You end up with less than the money you started with even though you had seemingly symmetric returns in the upside and downside. And so there's this volatility drag, right? Even if you have two investments, the same expected return, but one is higher volatility, the investment with higher volatility is actually going to end up with a worse outcome than the other one.

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