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William Bernstein on The Delusions of Crowds | #346

The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing

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The Average, Typical Fund Manager, Is Skilled

Many people try to extrapolate from my god, it's not even years now. I said ten to 20 years. Hold in assume you're talking about something like an entire stock market and not something like a tiny industry or sector that may end up going the way the dodo bird. There are people who are so skilled and whose models are so good that it becomes very quickly apparent that their skill in renaissance technology comes most easily demined. It takes hundreds of years to figure that out.

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