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110 - Daniel Kahneman: Biases and Flaws in Human Judgment

Robinson's Podcast

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Noise and the Complexity of the World

The ability to predict the world is limited by unavoidable unpredictability and the unpredictable. When you come to error, there are just two types of errors: There is noise, and there is bias. In a study with 208 federal judges that studied them many years ago, they were shown vignettes of crimes; everybody got the same 16 problems but said 16 sentences. To give you a sense of the variability, in cases for which the average sentence was seven years, you would take two judges at random, and the difference between them could be almost four years. But it's not an error because that is in the world.

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