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Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class V Part II [9.22.15]

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Should We Do WMD in Iraq?

If you are in charge or if you're advising our intelligence agencies on their hiring protocol, would you advise them to give a boost to people that do well in your tournaments versus those that don't when it comes to making the kind of decision like should we do in Syria? I would. And in fact, it's already happened to some degree. As Barb knows from one of our super forecasters conferences, there was a person from the intelligence community who encouraged super forecasters to apply for jobs there. He didn't know how many actually did since the vast majority are already pretty gainfully employed. But I think it's a good idea. The really hard part of what the hard issue that

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