Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova cover image

How Trump Won

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

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Polling vs. Prediction Markets: Analyzing Accuracy

This chapter explores the effectiveness of prediction markets compared to traditional polling methods, particularly during elections. It analyzes the impact of political tendencies on betting behaviors, the reliability of gut feelings versus statistical data, and the broader implications of recent electoral outcomes.

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