Navigating Incrementality Testing in Mobile Marketing

Mobile attribution is getting better than ever before. And that's in spite of it becoming more and more complex.

There's so many measurement methodologies. Advanced SAN. AEM. Advanced AEM. Unified Measurement. SKAN. AAK. Privacy Sandbox. GAID. IDFA. Probabilistic. Modeled.

You name it, there's MORE of everything.

But in spite of all that, mobile attribution is getting better. Way better. And maybe, it's actually BECAUSE of all that. And the great news: it's also getting EASIER.

Makes sense?

Insane?

Impossible?

Check out this convo in Growth Masterminds between John Koetsier and Singular CTO Eran Friedman

🎧 Podcast Summary: The Future of Mobile Attribution & Measurement (2025)

🔍 Main Themes & Insights

• Shift from deterministic to modeled measurement due to privacy regulations like ATT, SKAN, and Privacy Sandbox.

• Major ad networks now offer advanced attribution solutions:

• Meta AEM & Advanced AEM: Modeled iOS conversions now shared with MMPs for deduplication and unified reporting.

• Google Ads: Long-standing conversion modeling now trending toward MMP integrations.

• TikTok Advanced SAN: Dual strategy with deterministic IDFA and shared touchpoints for probabilistic attribution.

• Snap Advanced Conversion & Advanced SAN: Combines modeled, deterministic, and shared touchpoint data.

🧠 Singular’s Role: Unified Measurement

• Singular aggregates and deduplicates data across all ad networks.

• Offers user-level attribution wherever possible, even post-ATT.

• Enables side-by-side comparison of SKAN, partner-reported, and Singular-attributed data.

• Allows auditing and troubleshooting—e.g., identifying gaps in advanced integration coverage.

📊 Emerging Technologies & Trends

• On-device measurement (ODM) is growing—especially on Android via Google Play Referrer, Meta Referrer.

• OEM app stores may bring iOS-style measurement to Android (e.g., Huawei, Samsung via Mobi, etc.).

• Apple Search Ads adds view-through attribution to deterministic model—now exposed via MMPs.

📈 Advanced Strategies for Big Spenders

• Incrementality testing (geo-lift, holdout, MMM) is increasingly important to assess true ROI.

• Especially useful in Apple Search Ads, where cannibalization of organic installs is a key concern.

✅ Key Takeaways

• Measurement is more complex than ever—but also more actionable.

• Marketers can now customize their complexity level: from simple unified views to advanced auditing.

• The future looks optimistic: more transparency, better deduplication, and increasingly complete attribution.

00:00 Introduction and Optimism in Marketing

00:50 The Evolution of Mobile Attribution

01:31 Deep Dive into Attribution Data

03:04 Meta's Advanced Attribution Solutions

06:16 Google's Ad Conversion Modeling

08:34 TikTok's Advanced SAN Integration

11:09 Snap's Advanced Conversion and SAN

15:17 Apple's Deterministic Attribution

18:59 Other Ad Partners and Modeling

25:05 Singular's Unified Measurement Approach

32:53 Incrementality Testing and Advanced Strategies

35:47 Conclusion and Future of Measurement