The Long Term Debt Cycle

The long term debt cycle is extremely important to understanding how the economy works. To explain that, we need to take a step back and go back to the 70s. Structural economic growth is really the result of how many people are actually contributing to growth. The US total debt to GDP was 200% in the 90s, went all the way up to 300% in 2020.

Transcript

chevron_right

Play full episode

chevron_right

Transcript

Episode notes

Rebecca Hotsko and Alfonso Peccatiello discuss the current market outlook, including the driving force behind the market rally, its sustainability, Alfonso’s prediction of a 0% rate cut by the Fed in 2024, and a whole lot more!

Alfonso Peccatiello is former Head of a $20 billion Investment Portfolio and now is the Founder and author of The Macro Compass, which is an investment strategy firm that provides financial education, macro insights and investment ideas.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:

00:00 - Intro.

02:05 - His current market outlook, whether this recent market rally is sustainable or not.

10:43 - Why Alfonso expects the Fed to cut rates to 0% in 2024?

22:07 - How the long-term debt cycle works, what are the key factors that drive it over time?

29:27 - Why Alfonso believes we are in the very late stages of the long term debt cycle?

33:41 - What implications does this has economically, and for the financial markets?

34:02 - Will we see a period of deleveraging similar to 2008 and 1929 in the US?

41:11 - The difference between a period of deleveraging and a recession.

50:22 - His thoughts on the trend of de-dollarization, is a US dollar centric world over and are there any possible alternatives to this dollar central world?

54:49 - The Impacts that an economic downturn and de-leveraging would have on a US dollar based global system.

60:09 - Alfonso’s portfolio strategy and investment take-aways given his outlook.

*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.

BOOKS AND RESOURCES

Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Kyle and the other community members.
Check out The MacroCompass.
Check out: The MacroCompass Substack.
Related Episode: Listen to MI232: Understanding Quantitative Easing w/ Alfonso Peccatiello , or watch the video.

NEW TO THE SHOW?

Check out our Millennial Investing Starter Packs.
Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.
Try Kyle’s favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance.
Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.
Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets.
Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.

SPONSORS

Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors:

TurboTax
Public
Airbnb

Connect with Rebecca: Twitter | Instagram

Email: Rebecca@theinvestorspodcast.com

Connect with Alfonso: Website | Twitter

Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

The AI-powered Podcast Player

Save insights by tapping your headphones, chat with episodes, discover the best highlights - and more!

Get the app

Home Top podcasts Popular guests