Emerging Trends in the Global Investment Landscape

Original Release on August 13th, 2021: Across numerous metrics, the current environment may be an unusually good time to borrow money. What does this mean for equities, credit and government bonds? Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains.

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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about trends across the global investment landscape and how we put those ideas together. It's Friday, August 13th, at 4:00 p.m. in London.

Obvious things can still matter. Across a number of metrics, this is an unusually good moment to borrow money. And while the idea that interest rates are low is also something we heard a lot about over the prior decade, today we're seeing borrowing cost, ability, and need align in a pretty unique way. For investors, it supports Equities over Credit and caution on government bonds.

Let's start with those borrowing costs, which are pretty easy. Corporate bond yields in Europe are at all-time lows, while U.S. companies haven't been able to borrow this cheaply since the early 1950s. Mortgage rates from the U.S. to the Netherlands are at historic lows, and it's a similar story of cheap funding for government bonds.

But even more important is the fact that these costs are low relative to growth and inflation. If you borrow to pay for an asset—like equipment or infrastructure or a house—it’s value is probably going to be tied to the price levels and strength of the overall economy. This is why deflation and weak growth can be self-fulfilling: if the value of things falls every year, you should never borrow to buy anything, leading to less lending activity and even more deflationary pressure.

That was a fear for a lot of the last decade, when austerity and concerns around secular stagnation ruled the land. And that may have been the fear as recently as 15 months ago with the initial shock of covid. But today it looks different. Expected inflation for the next decade is now above the 20-year average in the US, and Morgan Stanley's global growth forecasts remain optimistic.

What about the ability to borrow? After all, low interest rates don't really matter if borrowers can't access or afford them. Here again, we see some encouraging signs. Bond markets are wide open for issuance, with strong year to date trends. Banks are easing lending standards in both the U.S. and Europe. And low yields mean that governments can borrow without risking debt sustainability.

So borrowing costs are low even relative to the prior decade, and the ability to borrow has improved. But is there any need? Again, we see encouraging signs and some key differences from recent history.

First, our economists see a red-hot capital expenditure cycle with a big uptick in investment spending across the public and private sector. Higher wages are another catalyst here, as they often drive a pretty normal pattern where companies invest more to improve the productivity of the workers they already have.

But another big one is the planet. If the weather this summer hasn't convinced you of a shift in the climate, the latest report from the IPCC, the UN's authority on climate change, should. Since 1970, global surface temperatures have risen faster than in any other 50-year period over the last two millennia.

Combating climate change is going to require enormous investment - perhaps $10 Trillion by 2030, according to an estimate from the IEA. But there's good news. The economics of these investments have improved dramatically, with the cost of wind and solar power declining 70-90% or more in the last decade. The cost of financing these projects has never been lower or more economical.

An attractive borrowing environment is good news for the issuers of debt - companies and governments. It's not so good for those holding these obligations. More supply means, well, more supply, one of several factors we think will push bond yields higher.

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