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Data Assets & Alpha Group: Macro and Positioning Views – Jan 2023

Making Sense

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Are You Expecting a Recession?

Drew McReynolds: "I do expect a recession. While I expect the strength of the U.S. consumer to buttress any economic slowdown, that strength is a double edged sword" He says while inflation seems set to decline in the near term, there are risks due to China's reopening,. pushing commodities higher and services inflation remaining sticky. With financial conditions loosening a bit in recent months, it seems the Fed will remain hawkish and a recession is likely.

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