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Why You Can't Fully Trust Recent U.S. Data

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

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Is It Fair to Bump Up Activity in the ISM Service Index in January?

In January, the seasonal adjustment filter bumps up activity to a larger extent than seen in prior years. Is it fair that activity is bumped up even more than January 2022 where the US was hit by an armicrum wave of COVID? I don't think so. The retail sales report out of the US for January was extraordinarily strong. But if we look beneath the surface of this report, we once again see extreme seasonal adjustments.

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