The AI Dilemma | Your Undivided Attention
TED Tech
The Double Exponent Curve
Dylan Marin: Even AI experts who are most familiar with exponential curves are still poor at predicting progress, even though they have that cognitive bias. In 2021, a set of professional forecasters very well familiar with exponentials were asked to make a set of predictions. They took less than one year to reach greater than 50% accuracy. These are the people that are seeing the examples of the double exponential curves. And they're the ones predicting, and it's still four times closer than what they were imagining. Yeah, they're off by a factor of four.
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